Commerce, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

695
FXUS63 KPAH 302124
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
424 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather conditions expected through the upcoming weekend.
- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week,
even though temperatures will cool slightly for the weekend.
- A small chance of rain (15-20%) arrives Monday into Monday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 423 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Updated Aviation disussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High pressure will linger across the area through the upcoming
weekend before gradually drifting eastward into early next week.
Upper-level ridging will remain in place through that time period,
keeping temperatures above normal across the Quad State. That would
put high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. For comparison,
normal highs are in the upper 70s. No chances of rain are expected
through Sunday.
As the high drifts eastward, moisture is expected to increase as
subtle low is progged to develop and drift northward from the Gulf.
This will lead to the next, small chance, of showers across the area
for Monday afternoon into Monday night. It doesn`t look like a lot
of rain, but at least some hope for a tenth of an inch or so. Still
some uncertainty on how far north the moisture lifts and how
widespread any rainfall will be. Drought conditions are not expected
to improve over the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 423 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Persistence strategy forecast is best in this little/no
movement, high pressure dominated synoptic pattern. That means
clearing night-time skies save for FEW-SCT high level bases that
time/height cross sections hint, and possibly patchy fog at
mainly prone terminal KCGI offering the only temporary
restriction potential. Tmrw will repeat today with FEW-SCT bases
6-8K FT AGL in a generally light northeast to easterly columnar
flow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion