805 FXUS64 KJAN 011836 AFDJANArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 136 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather with seasonably warm days and mild nights can be expected.
- Rain chances begin to increase some early next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Tonight through next Tuesday...At the surface, high pressure along the east coast will remain wedged into the forecast area. Aloft, weak ridging will attempt to slide east deeper into the region. However, it`ll eventually break down allowing low pressure to build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley come the weekend, but weakening over the region early next week.
Overall, quiet weather will persist across the forecast area throughout the forecast period. Slightly above normal warmth will be felt each afternoon over the next couple of days. Come Friday and into the weekend, afternoon highs will be more in line with normals for this time of year as drier air advects east into the region. Conditions will then warm early next week as moisture subtly creeps back into the region.
Rain chances will remain scarce across the CWA and mainly in the form of a stray shower or two each afternoon. Over the weekend and into early next week, the increased presence of the aforementioned mid/upper low will yield some better rain chances across the forecast area. Still, with the isolated to scattered nature of convection, much of the area will remain dry. With this ongoing long duration stretch of below normal rainfall, we will be monitoring for any increased fire weather concerns in this dry weather pattern. /19/
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will be light and northerly through 12Z tomorrow before winds become southerly and increase to around 10Kts with potential for wind gusts in the 15-20Kt range especially along eastern TAF sites. /KP/
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 88 63 85 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 62 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 68 90 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 66 90 63 87 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 67 90 65 86 / 10 10 0 0 Greenville 67 90 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 67 90 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
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.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
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19/KP/EC/
NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion