Cone, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

450
FXUS63 KDTX 010742
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
342 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No precipitation to speak of through the weekend.
- Temperatures dip into the mid 60s to low-mid 70s today and
  Thursday then return to the 80s for Friday and the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern yet again as 1032mb
pressure center over James Bay builds southward into the Great Lakes
and eastern conus in the wake of Tuesday`s backdoor cold front.
Easterly flow off the lakes will provide an opportunity for some
shallow fog across the typically cooler spots along the lake shores,
but winds are up around 5 knots which may be enough to mitigate any
denser fog we`ve experienced at times over the last several days.
Surface dewpoint depressions are still up around 4 degrees as well
showing the BL has some work to do with unfavorable winds to let fog
occur. Today will be the coolest day we`ve had in a while with highs
only reaching 65 (by the lakeshore) to low 70s inland which is
plus/minus a couple degrees from normal. Though there will be a
surge of low/mid level dry air today with 850mb Tds falling to
around -40C, There will be some passing high clouds streaming in at
times from the warm advection occuring over MN/WI today.
Quiet weather continues through the end of the week and into the
weekend as the stalled upper level ridge remains over the region.
Models consistently advertising max 500mb heights of 588dam trying
to nose into southern MI today before the ridge flattens with the
wave lifting through MN/WI today and increased southwesterly flow
entering the jet over the Pacific NW works across Canada. This will
fold the warmer airmass over the Great Lakes allowing temps to
rebound after the Wed/Thurs highs around 70, back into the 80s and
even mid to upper 80s on Saturday which is roughly 15 degrees above
normal for early October. Ridging hold over the region through the
weekend and into next week before the next vort max ejects out of
the western conus trough and up through the Midwest Monday which
looks to pull a cold front through lower MI on Tuesday. This would
be the next chance of precipitation for the region.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure drifts into Quebec today, veering winds to the west.
Loss of onshore flow and relaxation to the gradient allows headlines
to expire this morning. Otherwise the rest of the week will be
characterized by dry weather and light winds veering gradually to
the southwest by Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
AVIATION...
Cooler but dry air originating from high pressure centered on James
Bay continues moving across Lake Huron and later from Lake Erie into
Lower Mi during the night. Assessment of cloud trends based on
evening observations indicate lake moisture flux is sufficient to
hold surface Td in the 50s inland toward the terminal corridor while
wind speed maintains 5+ knots. These observations and short term
forecast projections favor fog potential more limited to the usual
sheltered locations while monitoring for stratocu mainly in the MBS
area and DTW corridor. The latest model soundings suggest the
moisture a bit shallow for lake stratocu with the possible exception
of from western Lake Erie as potential cloud layer wind veers toward
the SE by sunrise. Improved observational evidence is needed before
adding any lower clouds in later updates. Otherwise, another dry
weather day is expected with a greater component of high clouds by
afternoon into Wednesday evening.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms will not occur through the
forecast period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ049.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421-441.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT
this morning for LEZ444.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....BT
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at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion