Cone, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

485
FXUS64 KLUB 190526
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Warm and dry during the day today, with a slight chance of
   showers and storms along the TX/NM state line tonight.
- Low storm chances continue into early next week for portions of
   the area.
- A cold front remains on track by late Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper level ridge axis currently stretching from north-central
Mexico up through the Four Corners will gradually build eastward
today as residual weak troughing over KS/OK shifts northeast. Flow
aloft over our area will consequently weaken and turn more zonal,
with the overall pattern favoring dry conditions during the day
given slightly more inhibition associated with the warmer midlevels.
Temperatures will be just a bit warmer than the past couple of days,
with highs in the mid 80s on the Caprock and upper 80s to low 90s
east of the escarpment. This evening into tonight, convection which
initially develops along the higher terrain of NM will shift
eastward in tandem with a shortwave trough tracking along the top of
the upper ridge. It looks likely that scattered showers and storms
will approach the state line by late evening, but it`s uncertain how
well this activity will hold together after sunset. Would not be
surprised to see some weak convection and light rain accumulations
across western portions of the South Plains region given the
westerly flow aloft, but current expectation is that showers and
storms will fade in coverage overnight with the majority of the
region remaining dry through sunrise Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper level trough tracking eastward out of the Rockies will move
over the region Saturday morning, bringing the next chance of
precipitation. These will mainly occur off the Caprock, although at
least mentionable PoPs have been retained from a majority of the
area during the morning hours with the initial wave. If moisture
persists overnight into Sunday, low clouds and/or patchy fog would
be possible around sunrise ahead of an approaching ridge. This will
will bring generally benign conditions on Sunday. A shortwave will
develop Sunday evening over the southern Rolling Plains, but should
quickly depart the CWA and only lead to a brief slight chance of
storms there. Sunday and Monday will be the hottest days of the week
under the aforementioned ridge, with highs in the low-to-mid 90s and
even potentially reaching triple digits off the Caprock. Despite the
hot temperatures, much of Monday should remain quiet with strong
capping. The ridge will begin to break down Monday evening as
another upper cutoff low moves near Baja California. This will also
push a cold front through the area. Highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will occur overnight Monday into Tuesday along the
front. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be about 5-10 degrees cooler
than Monday, but still near average for this time of year. A number
of shortwaves will propagate through the flow for the remainder of
the weak. Highest chances look to generally be over the far southern
Panhandle, however PoPs have been kept low/non-mentionable for many
areas given continued model uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR with light winds. Few TS southwest of CDS this hour should
remain outside the airspace before dwindling by 07Z or so.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion