704 FXUS64 KMEG 081702 AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Pleasant and unseasonably cool temperatures will hang around through the rest of today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s.
- Hot and dry conditions will return Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the 90s, likely worsening ongoing drought conditions.
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.DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A pleasant day is underway as upper level troughing and surface high pressure allow mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures. High temperatures today are anticipated to remain in the 80s with little humidity.
An Omega Blocking pattern has been building over the western and central US and will push east towards the Mid-South. Ridging will begin to build in tomorrow and temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. As the ridge builds and centers over the region, temperatures will continue be on the rise and reach the mid to upper 90s by Friday. Dewpoints will generally remain in the 60s keeping heat indices at bay.
The current surface high and anticipated ridging pattern to kick off will keep rain chances out of the forecast for the forecast period. Warming temperatures and on-going drought conditions will raise a concern for wildfire danger. The Climate Prediction Center highlights the region for at least the next 14 days leaning below (40-60%) normal precipitation. With this outlook, expect burn bans, fire weather notifications, and persisting or worsening drought conditions across the region.
DNM
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. NE winds between 8-12 kts will become light this evening.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
MinRH values will hover above 25% through midweek. Humidity will take a dive again by Thursday and near 20%. Fuels are very dry, but winds should remain on the lighter side hindering wildfire spread. Any vegetation that does ignite, will have plenty of dry fuels to work with.
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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
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PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...CJC
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion