329 FXUS61 KCAR 081153 AFDCARArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 753 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the region through tonight, then slowly exits to the east-northeast through Wednesday. A cold front crosses Maine from northwest to southeast from Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then builds down from Canada through Friday. &&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Update... Updated aviation discussion.
Previous Discussion... Surface high pressure over Maine today into tomorrow, while an upper-level trough with associated jet moves over New England. Looking at calm and dry conditions today, with very dry mid- levels and westerly flow. Relatively clear skies, with some mid- and-upper level clouds moving through on the Downeast coast. High temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s in the north, and upper-60s to low-70s Downeast. Potential for some gusty winds this afternoon into evening.
Skies clear out overnight, and 850mb temperatures are generally in the 2-4C range. Northern counties have a potential to radiationally cool down to the low-to-mid 30s. There is a chance for some frost development in these areas, especially in cold valley spots. Make sure to plan accordingly for any sensitive vegetation or plants that may be impacted. Light winds, high relatively humidity, and surface inversion could lead to some river valley fog, which would keep temperatures from dropping down too much. Outside of northern areas, low temperatures in the 40s Downeast.
Upper level trough axis swings out by Tuesday, with some light ridging building in behind it. Clear skies and dry weather on Tuesday. Light winds, but also low relative humidity values around the 30-40% range, which is important to monitor from a fire weather perspective. High temperatures in the 60s, and 70s along the coast. &&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains ridged across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A cold front begins to approach northern areas later Wednesday night. Expect mostly clear skies across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Patchy frost is again possible in the normally coldest locations of northern Maine Tuesday night. Patchy river valley fog is also possible. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. Could also have a slight chance of showers late across the Saint John Valley in advance of the approaching cold front. Skies will remain mostly clear Downeast. The cold front will cross the region Thursday. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers north Thursday, with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Downeast. Expect near normal level temperatures Wednesday. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures north Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Downeast. &&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure builds across across the region Thursday night through Friday night with mostly clear skies across the forecast area. High pressure then exits across the Maritimes Saturday through Sunday. Aloft, troffing gradually develops across the region Saturday through Sunday with disturbances possibly moving through the trof. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Saturday through Sunday. Dependent on the possible disturbances, could also have a slight chance of showers Saturday night into Sunday. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday. &&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Variable conditions in any patchy fog tonight. Otherwise, VFR today through Tuesday. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots today. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest Tuesday.
KBGR/KBHB: Variable conditions in any patchy fog tonight. Otherwise, VFR today through Tuesday. West winds 10 to 15 knots today, except becoming southwest along the Downeast coast this afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight through Tuesday.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. South winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.
Wednesday night...VFR. Slight chance of showers late north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday...VFR. Slight chance of showers north. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
Thursday night through Friday...VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday. &&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft criteria in the near term period. Seas generally 3 ft or below over all waters. Slight chance for some fog over the waters tonight. Winds 5-10 kts from the W today, shifting to the SW by later tonight.
SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday night through Thursday. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ001>006. MARINE...None.
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Near Term...Brennan Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Brennan/Norcross Marine...Brennan/Norcross
NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion