886 FXUS61 KBTV 260554 AFDBTVArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS... After some much needed rainfall, some additional showers will continue across the region tonight, with some lingering showers into tomorrow. Drier and warmer weather return for the weekend, with high pressure bringing a stretch of seasonable and pleasant weather to the region next week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 732 PM EDT Thursday...Precipitation is started to move eastward as a defined line is moving into southern Vermont. As such adjustments were needed to better outline where rain is falling on radar. Kept area of greater than 75% chances longer across southern/eastern Vermont for an hour longer while removing thunderstorm chances which are not occurring. Otherwise, the forecast is right on target and is verifying well.
Previous discussion...As expected, precipitation has once again become more widespread across the region once again after a brief lull earlier this morning as surface low pressure crosses the region. Rainfall amounts have ranged anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to over 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of northern Vermont on the lower end with southern Vermont receiving the most so far. Rainfall will gradually becoming more showery and taper off through the evening. Some fog development and low stratus clouds will be possible tonight with so much surface moisture available, especially towards the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures overnight tonight will be on the milder side with plentiful cloud cover and showers, with lows only dropping into the 50s and low 60s.
Tomorrow will largely feature drier weather, although a few lingering showers will be possible throughout the day. A weak cold front will pass through the region, bringing some additional chances for showers in the afternoon but any shower chances look largely limited to the higher terrain and portions of the Northeast Kingdom. High temperatures tomorrow will generally climb into the 70s, but increased cloud cover and lingering precipitation could keep things on the cooler side. Temperatures overnight Friday will be cooler than the previous night, with lows dropping into 40s to lower 50s with additional chances for fog development as high pressure shifts toward the region.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...Seasonable and dry weather is expected for the first half of the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will make for a pleasant late September day. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to almost 60 near Lake Champlain. The latest guidance continues to keep any chances for showers associated with a weak coastal low south of our forecast area Saturday night, but this potential may need to be monitored if guidance trends further north.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Friday...Multi level high pressure and ridging will build across the Plains and Midwest early next week and move east/northeastward towards the forecast area, deflecting any tropical moisture to the south. Westerly flow is anticipated to advect milder temperatures into the region, keeping highs Monday nearly 10 degrees above seasonal averages in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Then, a dry cold frontal boundary is expected to cross from north/northwest to south/southeast and drop highs for the latter half of the week to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Even stronger high pressure will build out of the Hudson Bay around midweek, continuing to keep our forecast area out of any precipitation or even ,any cloudy weather. Nighttime conditions next week will likely feature abundant patches of valley fog with light or calm surface winds and plenty of clear sky. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will be in the 40s and lower 50s, then dropping after the cold front into the upper 20s to mid 40s. This will mean frost is possible for many locations, most likely in the Adirondacks, the Greens, and eastern Vermont as a whole. Any frost products we might issue will likely not include the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom because their designated "growing season" ends Oct 1 (Tuesday night), but elsewhere the frost/freeze program continues.
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.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...A wide range of conditions anywhere from VFR to LIFR is occurring as the storm system that brought plenty of rain yesterday shifts northeastward across Maine. Some sites seem to be showing quick improvement in conditions with ceilings scattering/lifting and vis increasing. However, we expect conditions bouncing down to MVFR and IFR periodically over the next 6 hours. We`re forecasting conditions to return to a sustained MVFR or higher level by around 11Z-16Z Friday, though the exact timing remains tricky. Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated by about 15Z-20Z. Friday morning southwesterly flow will turn westerly Friday afternoon and even northwesterly later in the day Friday into the overnight. Winds may gust 10-20 knots at times 18Z onwards.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Monday: VFR. Patchy BR. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None.
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$$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Storm
NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion