Crane Nest, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

693
FXUS63 KJKL 162105
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather will persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
Showers/thunderstorms have dwindled quickly in KY and shifted
mainly into TN. Have reduced the POP a bit more quickly for this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A large cut-off mid-level low over with surface low near the
southeastern Virginia coastline will move northeast and weaken with
time through the short-term period. Mid-level heights will begin to
rise tonight and gradually continue as upper ridging moves over the
area from the west.
Best chance of precipitation will be this afternoon until around or
shortly after sunset to the south of the KY Highway 80 corridor, and
more favorably, south into northeastern Tennessee. Activity should
be mostly just showers, but an isolated thunderstorm or two is
possible along the Tennessee border if a warm layer between about 10
kft and 15 kft can be overcome.
Otherwise, a drier and more stable air mass moves over the area
within northerly mid-level flow for tonight through Wednesday night.
This will allow for highs to remain near to above normal in the 80s
for Wednesday, while lows will continue to be near normal in the 50s
to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
BLUF: warm and dry conditions expected to persist into early next
week.
Ridging aloft continues to build eastward through the end of the
work week, keeping conditions relatively benign. Models remain in
good agreement that ridging continues over the area through
Saturday, as a dominant high sweeps eastward across southern Canada.
A deepening low downstream of the high will enhance flow along the
eastern periphery of the high, sending a colder air mass surging
through the northeast. The primary source of uncertainty for the
extended forecast period revolves around whether or not that cold
front makes it this far south before a warm front tied to a stalled
shortwave in the northern Plains lifts through the greater
Appalachians.
Global ensemble guidance continues to push back increases in PoPs to
later and later, which has been happening with each model run over
the last three days. NBM PoPs are in the 10-15% range for Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. No adjustments made to these PoPs
because run-to-run consistency in timing is poor, and these low-end
PoPs reflect the variability and wishy-washy nature of recent
guidance in the day 5 and beyond timeframe.
Temps under the building ridge will continue warming through the end
of the week, reaching the low 90s on Friday and Saturday (the two
warmest days of the week) across eastern Kentucky. This is 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. NBM temperature spreads
are very small (3-4 degrees at most) indicating high confidence in
these temperatures occurring. Temperatures will, as always, be
5-10 degrees cooler near the ridgetops. Overnight lows in the 50s
and 60s into the weekend, and clear skies would provide a boost to
radiational cooling that would keep nighttime temperatures on the
lower end of that range.
Ensemble guidance begins to deviate on temperatures after Monday
and Tuesday, but overall guidance suggests that even if there is
a cooldown early next week, that temperatures will still be above
average for this time of year. Climate Prediction Center
highlights roughly 60% chances of above normal temperatures in
their 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Update: In accordance with radar and satellite trends, a tempo
was introduced at KJKL through 21z for light rain showers.
Multiple showers have developed along a north-south line
stretching from Breathitt County to Morgan County. These showers
are moving due south and could occasionally produce light rain
conditions at KJKL for the next couple of hours.
The previous aviation discussion follows:
VFR conditions continue to prevail at the terminals this afternoon.
The latest satellite imagery depicts the development of scattered
diurnal cumulus across the region, alongside a few high clouds
streaming off a low pressure system off the Atlantic Coast. A few
showers have developed along and west of the I-75 corridor this
afternoon, but confidence in these showers affecting the TAF sites
was too low to explicitly mention SHRA in the TAFs. A clearing trend
is favored after sunset, and this should once again lead to
overnight river valley fog formation. While the probability of
significant vsby reductions is low at the five main terminals,
persistence and GLAMP trends point towards a chance of fog at KSME
and KLOZ between 09z and 13z. If either of these locations sees rain
this afternoon, the likelihood of fog could increase. However,
probabilities are not currently high enough to warrant more than a
TEMPO in this time frame for the 18z TAF package. Expect light and
variable winds to continue throughout the period as a surface high
remains over the forecast area and the aforementioned Atlantic low
drifts away from the area.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...MARCUS

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion