Creekmore Park, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS64 KTSA 141116
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT SUN Sep 14 2025
- Heat index values in the mid 90s today which could increase heat
   stress potential for those with outdoor plans.
- 10-20% chance of showers this afternoon, with the highest potential
   along and west of Hwy 75 where isolated thunderstorms are also
   possible.
- Higher rain chances arrive mid week with temperatures falling
   back near average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An upper level low was noted on water vapor imagery moving through
the Four Corners region late Saturday/ early Sunday. As this system
ejects into the plains today, shower and thunderstorm development is
forecast to the west of the FA. CAMs continue to support the idea
that the bulk of associated precip will remain just outside our area
as the low moves to the north and west of us. Still, could see some
showers and thunderstorms develop/ move into far northwest parts of
the CWA... primarily along and west of Hwy 75... where 10-20% PoPs
have been maintained. Additionally, similar to Saturday, isolated
pop-up showers with perhaps a lightning strike or two may develop
just about anywhere in the CWA this afternoon. HREF NPs suggest W-
Central AR and SE OK are most favored and have introduced slight
rain chances here, though the majority of locations are still likely
to remain dry. Temperatures and heat indices today will not be as
warm as Saturday, but still above average in the lower-mid 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Most precip is likely to wind down after sunset this evening.
Although, light showers may linger into the overnight period across
far NW portions of the area along the LLJ/ moist axis. Another round
of isolated afternoon showers will be possible Monday and Tuesday (5
to 15% chance), though most locations are again likely to remain
dry. Going into mid week, troughing returns to the C CONUS bringing
higher and more widespread rain chances to the region Wednesday and
Thursday. Severe weather and flooding risks currently appear to
remain limited/ nil with this feature.
By late week, negative height anomalies are projected to linger
across the eastern US with ridging gradually attempting to expand
into the southern plains. This generally places E OK and NW AR under
NW flow aloft. Under this regime, disturbances embedded in the flow
could bring additional rain chances into the weekend. However, given
model uncertainty at this range, have left PoPs near the NBM, which
generally paints 10-25% rain chances across the FA. Temperatures
remain above average Monday and Tuesday before trending closer to
normal mid and late week (lower-mid 80s) given increased cloud cover
and rain potential.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Some light fog may continue at KBVO and KFYV for the first hour or
so of the forecast period, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Any rain chances remain too low to include in the TAF`s at this
time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  71  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   95  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   92  69  92  68 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   92  66  91  66 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   93  67  93  66 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   92  68  92  65 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   92  70  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   92  69  92  66 /  10  10  10  10
F10   91  69  91  66 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   90  69  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion