Crescent, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

313
FXUS64 KHGX 060444
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Rain and storm chances return today and into early next week as
moisture increases along and ahead of a frontal boundary.
- Locally heavy rain and strong storms will be possible,
particularly on Sunday.
- Drier and hot days are expected next week, except along the coast
where rain chances continue through most of the week.
- Comfortable nights are expected late this weekend into the
  middle of next week as a drier airmass filters in from the
  northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Latest satellite imagery shows a plume of increasing moisture
arriving across the state from the west. In fact, PWs have increased
into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range in the past hours across our northern
areas. The main weather makers will be a series of shortwaves
embedded in the west to northwest flow aloft and increasing surface
convergence due to a frontal boundary currently draped across
north- central Texas. These disturbances combined with the
increasing moisture and instability will bring scattered
thunderstorms to the region today through early next week.
For today, expect some scattered activity to develop, particularly
across the northern portion of the area as the frontal boundary
slowly approaches. Initially, a drier mid-level layer around 700mb
may lead to some virga. However, as the day progresses, this will be
reinforced by more moisture and instability, especially along the
sea/baybreeze in the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered activity will continue Saturday night into
Sunday, primarily along the frontal as it stalls or slowly moves
towards the coast. The risk of locally heavy rainfall increases on
Sunday as PW values are forecast to reach the 2.0 to 2.3 inch range.
This, coupled with steep low to mid level lapse rates and a building
MUCAPE will create a favorable environment for stronger storms.
Therefore, expect scattered thunderstorms with a few of them
potentially being strong. While not everyone will see rain, the
coverage will be more widespread, so monitor the forecast closely
and have a Plan B for any outdoor activities.
Lingering showers and storms may persist on Monday before a drier
airmass completely filters in across SE TX early next week. This
will be the case for most of the region; however, rain chances will
still continue along the coast and coastal waters as the boundary
potentially stalls through most of the week. The good news is that
northwest drier flow will bring comfortable nights with lows in the
60s and 70s through the week.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Light winds and VFR conditions prevail this evening and overnight.
Heading into the early morning hours of Saturday, MVFR
CIGS/isolated patchy fog may briefly set across our northern
terminals (KCLL/KUTS/KCXO). A weak frontal boundary is expected to
enter the area on Saturday, bringing a north/northeast wind shift.
A few showers/storms cannot be ruled out, though PoPs are fairly
low. Rain chances will be highest Saturday afternoon near the
coast, where the weak frontal boundary may collide with the sea
breeze to produce showers/storms. Any showers that do form should
taper off Saturday evening.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Increasing rain and storm chances are expected over the weekend and
into next week ahead of a cold front. This frontal boundary is
expected to move across Southeast TX later today, making it to the
coast this evening/overnight. Sunday will bring the highest
potential for scattered thunderstorms, some of them with locally
heavy rain. This FROPA will stall along the coast or just offshore
early next week; therefore, rain chances will continue over the
coastal waters. Drier conditions are expected inland. Winds will
become moderate at times, especially Sunday and Monday. Building
seas are also expected with wave heights up to 4 ft possible.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  88  72  85 /   0  30  30  60
Houston (IAH)  85  93  75  87 /   0  30  40  60
Galveston (GLS)  85  90  78  88 /   0  20  40  60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion