Crocker, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS66 KSEW 300943
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
243 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will move through the area this
afternoon into Wednesday, bringing widespread rain, breezy to
gusty winds, and a slight chance of thunder across the area.
Unsettled conditions are favored to continue late into the week as
additional systems move into the region. Drier conditions may
return for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Latest radar imagery shows
few post-frontal showers weakening across the area. A brief
reprieve from rain this morning will end fairly quickly as a
frontal system approaches the coast. A front will move onshore
this morning, with rain starting to push through the coast by
midday, spreading into Puget Sound and the rest of the interior by
the early evening hours. As the front moves across the region
this afternoon, breezy to gusty winds will be noticeable
throughout the interior, especially for areas along the coast and
the North Interior. A Wind Advisory continues to be in in effect
for the coastal areas, along with San Juan County, where wind
gusts of 45 mph can be expected. Elsewhere, gusts of 25 mph will
be likely throughout the rest of the interior, with wind gusts
likely peaking this evening. Additionally, latest model runs have
continued to suggest a 20-30% chance of thunder this evening,
primarily along the coast with a lower chance (5-10%) within the
interior.
The aforementioned frontal system will continue pushing through
the area Wednesday into Thursday with widespread rain and locally
breezy to gusty winds (with the highest wind gusts mainly along
the coast and in the North Interior). Thunder chances will
increase over the Olympics and the interior Wednesday evening,
with a 30-40% chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two along the
coast and Olympics, and a 15-20% chance over much of the interior.
QPF totals over the Olympic Peninsula by Thursday could range
from 4 to 7 inches, being the first significant rainfall of the
season. Areas in the Cascades will likely see a 1-2 inches, with
0.25 to 1 inch ranging through interior locations. Wave heights
along the coast will approach 15 feet or higher on Wednesday. This
could generate hazardous surf conditions with waves running
higher on beaches that can sweep people off jetties and
breakwaters - with a High Surf Advisory in effect. Beach erosion
is also possible.
Conditions will remain unsettled on Thursday with rain slowly
tapering throughout the day. Temperatures will remain near normal,
in the mid 60s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Ensembles continue to point
to a drying trend heading into the weekend and into early next
week as a weak ridge attempts to build offshore. Uncertainty still
does exist on when this ridge builds - as a couple of systems
brush by western Washington that could continue to give us low-end
shower chances throughout the weekend. As for now, will leave
chance of showers in the forecast but with minimal QPF as
confidence nudges towards drier conditions.
28
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft will persist through the TAF
period as upper level low approaches the region offshore. Radar
early this morning shows some lingering shower activity across the
central and north Sound. Expect this shower activity to taper
over the next few hours, providing a brief break in the rain in
between systems. Current conditions across the area terminals are
a mixed bag, primarily from MVFR to IFR. Light winds and ample
moisture from recent rains will likely keep ceilings lower through
the early morning hours, with some spots of fog development
possible. Ceilings then generally look to improve back towards VFR
by the late morning hours. Another frontal system will approach
the coast today, pushing another round of rain inland. At this
time, rain looks to approach the coast between 18-21Z and push
into the interior between 21-00Z. Southerly winds will increase
areawide today, starting along the coast this morning and increasing
across the interior through the afternoon hours. Gusts to 25 kt
will be possible areawide, but will be higher along the coast.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible through the day,
primarily for terminals along the coast. However, confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAF issuance at this time.
KSEA...MVFR ceilings at the terminal through the early morning
hours, with improvement to VFR expected late morning. Light winds
through the early morning, with southerly winds expected to pick
up to 10-20 kt by this afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible.
The next round of rain will likely approach the terminal between
21-00Z.
14
&&
.MARINE...A strong frontal system will move across the area waters
today into Wednesday, bringing southerly gale force winds to the
Coastal Waters, Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, and portions of
the Northern Inland Waters. Elsewhere, small craft strength winds
are expected with the exception of the Central Strait, which
should largely remain sheltered to southeasterly winds. Winds
will start to increase over the next few hours and will remain
elevated into Wednesday as a strong low pressure system churns
offshore. Seas currently hovering between 6-9 ft will rapidly
build towards 15-17 ft today and to 16-19 ft by Wednesday.
The low pressure system offshore will then weaken on Thursday and
push inland on Friday, allowing for winds to decrease across the
area waters. Seas will gradually subside to below 10 ft through
the day on Thursday and down to 5-7 ft by Friday. Additional weak
systems may move through the area waters over the weekend, however
expect high pressure to build back over the northeastern Pacific
by the end of the week.
14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening
     for San Juan County.
High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet-West Entrance U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday
     for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion