Crossroads, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

212
FXUS64 KMAF 051913
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Cooler temperatures and increasing chances of rain are expected
  today through the weekend, with the greatest chances (20-60
  percent) anticipated Saturday night into Sunday.
- Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are forecast during the
  early to middle part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An upper-level trough continues to deepen across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes region early this afternoon with an associated cold
front progressing southward into northeast New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle and through much of Oklahoma. A weak surface low is taking
shape across northwest Texas, with an attendant surface trough
swinging across the Permian Basin and into the Trans Pecos
region as of early afternoon. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds
up to 15-25 mph and a few gusts over 35 mph have been observed over
a few locations behind the passing surface trough axis. Abundant mid
and upper level moisture is otherwise spreading over most of our
region today within the westerly flow aloft. Some of this moisture
is also being drawn into the area ahead of the remnants of Lorena
over Mexico. Radar imagery shows a broad region of light
reflectivity returns moving through much of our area, though much of
this activity is only in the form of a few sprinkles or very light
rain given the dry lower levels of the atmosphere as observed on the
KMAF morning upper-air sounding. A few of the Texas Tech University
mesonet stations have observed a few hundredths of measured rain
near Hobbs, Carlsbad Caverns National Park and the Guadalupe
Mountains National Park since this morning.
A westerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft will generally
prevail over west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Saturday
night. The atmospheric column will continue to moisten through
tonight and into Saturday, with precipitable water values forecast
to increase to 1.3-1.6 inches, and perhaps locally around 1.7 inches
along portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. The surface cold front is
meanwhile expected to push into the southeast New Mexico Plains and
much of the Permian Basin late tonight into Saturday morning, before
eventually becoming more diffuse along the vicinity of the Pecos
River Valley by Saturday afternoon. Weak shortwave impulses embedded
within the W-NW flow aloft will also move through our area tonight
into Saturday night. Ascent with these features in combination with
the abundant deep layer moisture and presence of weak instability
will support keeping a continued low to medium chance (20-50
percent) of measurable rainfall in the forecast across the
region tonight through Saturday night. The weak instability could
aid in the development of some convection (showers and a few
thunderstorms) through the period. Rainfall amounts should remain
relatively light through Saturday night, with most locations
receiving a tenth of an inch or less (some potentially none).
A few very localized pockets of higher totals may impact a few very
lucky spots. The threat of flooding appears minimal for now through
at least Saturday night. Temperatures will continue to trend much
cooler given the rain chances, copious amounts of cloud cover, and
the front moving into the area. Lows tonight will range in the upper
50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain areas, the southeast New
Mexico plains, and much of the Permian Basin. The warmest lows will
be along the southern Big Bend, Rio Grande, and Lower Trans Pecos
where readings range in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs on Saturday
also trend cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s over much of the
region, except for upper 80s to mid 90s over far southern portions
of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Low to medium (20-60%) rainfall chances continue on Sunday as
abundant moisture, embedded shortwave impulses in the flow aloft,
and instability behind the cold front continue across the region.
The best chances of rain (40-60%) look to be south of I-10,
especially in and around the Davis Mountains with the aid of
southeasterly upslope flow. Confidence in rainfall totals are rather
low at this time as there is disagreement among model guidance.
There is a a medium (30-50%) probability of rainfall totals being at
least a quarter of an inch. Some localized areas may see higher
rainfall totals. With that said, widespread flash flooding is not
currently expected. Abundant cloud cover in the post-frontal airmass
will keep afternoon highs in the 80s for most (70s in higher
elevations). Locations along the Rio Grande are still expected to
see temperatures in the 90s.
The upper-level ridge begins to build over west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday, beginning a drying and warming trend due to
subsident (sinking) motion. Upslope flow may initiate some isolated
convection (10-15% chance) in/near the Davis Mountains Monday. As
heights increase, afternoon highs will slowly warm up into the low
to mid 90s for most by midweek. Overnight lows bottom out into the
60s for most each night.
Greening
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail across area
terminals through the period. Westerly to northwesterly winds up
to around 15 knots with a few gusts around 25 knots may persist
for another 1-2 hours around KMAF before gradually diminishing.
Overcast mid-level cloud decks between 5-10 kft AGL will persist
through the afternoon with a few sprinkles or areas of light rain
possible at all terminals at times. Additional scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms will be possible this evening into late
tonight. We may have to watch for lowering ceilings to MVFR
thresholds around KHOB and KMAF by Saturday morning but
confidence was too low to mention in the TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  79  64  85 /  30  20  30  40
Carlsbad                 64  83  65  88 /  20  30  30  20
Dryden                   73  88  70  87 /  30  40  50  60
Fort Stockton            67  84  66  87 /  30  30  40  50
Guadalupe Pass           59  75  60  81 /  20  40  30  30
Hobbs                    62  79  61  84 /  20  30  30  30
Marfa                    59  80  59  82 /  30  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport     66  80  66  85 /  30  30  30  40
Odessa                   65  80  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
Wink                     65  83  65  87 /  20  30  30  30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion