Crow Creek, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

417
FXUS63 KABR 081731
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs today and Tuesday will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal
  across the region.
- Mainly elevated smoke will move across the area today into
  Tuesday. Some of this smoke will near the surface with
  visibility reductions possible mainly west of the Missouri River
  tonight.
- There is a 20% chance of showers and a few thunderstorms over
  portions of northeastern South Dakota late this afternoon into
  this evening. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The SPC Day 1 Outlook has been updated to remove the Marginal Risk
for severe weather over our northeastern counties for later this
afternoon into this evening. This makes sense when looking at the
latest CAMs, which generally diminishes the showers as they more
east. The most aggressive solution has been the FV3, with the
potential for a few larger showers or potential thunderstorms over
our far eastern-southeastern counties 00-02Z. We`ll continue to
monitor for the possibility of stronger thunderstorm development,
but at this time severe weather is not expected. The HWO has been
updated to reflect this change.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Low pressure moves in from the west today. Ahead of the low,
southerly flow and warm air advection coupled with some shortwave
energy will be enough to trigger some showers and thunderstorms.
Most of the energy will be focused in MN, but could trail back into
eastern SD. There is a marginal risk for severe storms north and
east of Watertown with hail being the main threat. Not particularly
impressed given the weak nature of the forcing and its concentration
farther east but do have some pops in there this evening with the
increased perturbation in the upper flow.
WAA today will push temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average both
today and Tuesday. Ridging builds back in on Tuesday with drier
conditions expected behind today`s sfc low. The only other concern
is the wildfire smoke. Both the HRRR and the RAP keep most of the
smoke elevated, but near sfc smoke could move into central SD as
early as this evening with reduced visibilities.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Tuesday evening, the upper level ridge to our west is starting to
move towards the area. The axis will cross the area Thursday.
Skipping ahead to the weekend, the models have come into more
agreement with a low moving in from the west, as opposed to previous
model runs with either a low or a trough getting stuck in the
Rockies. The Canadian and EC show an upper level low pressure system
move across the Rockies and into western SD on Sunday. The GFS still
shows a low parking over the Rockies and dying into a trough. The
Canadian shows the low moving almost straight north and dying out
early Monday. The EC shows the low sticking around into Monday.
The long term has chances for showers/storms every day. Highest PoPs
(30-50%) are Saturday as the low level low moves in and Sunday as it
continues to move across the area. The NBM shows the chance of more
than a quarter of an inch in 24 hours (ending Sunday afternoon) as
around 30% across most of the forecast area. Temperatures through
the period remain right around or slightly above average. Elevated
smoke looks to remain over the region at least through the day
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Fog over eastern SD and smoke over western SD will be a concern.
However, mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue for the
next 24 hours for most locations. MVFR visibility due to smoke has
the highest chance of occurring at PIR 06-16Z Monday. Morning fog
has the highest chance of occurring at ABR and PIR, but forecast
solutions remain inconsistent on coverage and and intensity. As a
result, fog was not included in the forecast at this time.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...06

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion