Crucible, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

563
FXUS61 KPBZ 300519
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
119 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected through
the week with high pressure in control.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and unseasonably warm
- Valley fog possible
---------------------------------------------------------------
Latest forecast soundings do not show the most a favorable
hydrolapse fog development overnight but given saturated low-
levels patchy fog is definitely not out of the question this
morning, for western PA and northern WV where dewpoint
depressions are tight. Eastern CONUS ridging will remain
dominant today. With minimal change in the overall synoptic
pattern and upper cloud coverage associated TS Imelda, today
will be very similar to what was observed Monday. This cloud
coverage will also result in relatively mild overnight lows over
western PA and north WV. Current observed values are running
near 5 degrees warmer than the same time early yesterday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gradual clearing this evening
- Dry conditions continue
- Slightly cooler Wed/Thur
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles remain confident in the current ridge development.
Currently, there is a strong upper-level ridge extending from the
Carolinas northwestward to North Dakota/eastern Montana. With this
strong ridge in place, cloud coverage from Humberto or Imelda is
expected to be kept east by the cool north-northeasterly wind. The
ridge will maintain strength as it gradually moves eastward to
extend from southwestern Kentucky northeastward to southern Quebec
by Thursday.
During this time, high temperatures are expected to cool from the
low 80s today to the low 70s Thursday with overnight
temperatures following a similar pattern. This is due to the
cold air advection from the northerly flow during this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in warm and dry conditions prevailing.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The ensembles remain confident through Saturday with the broad ridge
in place. Temperatures are forecast to return into the upper-70s/low
80s. Saturday night, an upper level trough will begin to approach
the region, however, the next chance for precipitation (>30%) will
not occur until Tuesday. Until then, temperatures are expected to
remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period under high pressure.
Cirrus streaming to the north of the tropical low off of the SE
coast will gradually decrease this afternoon, with clear skies
by tonight. These clouds should limit radiational cooling and
the resulting valley fog potential through this morning. A NE
wind and dry advection around the high should also preclude for
tonight.
.OUTLOOK....
Outside of patchy morning river valley fog, VFR is expected
through Saturday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88/Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...WM

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion