614 FXUS63 KMPX 261735 AFDMPXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably warm & dry weather continues through the end of the month.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Little in the way of fog development tonight, owing to slightly drier air filtering into the region behind a dry frontal passage & the fact that daytime temperatures overachieved into the 80s yesterday. Sunny, warm, & dry weather continues through this weekend with the only real weather of note being another dry frontal passage Saturday resulting to a few hours of breezy winds in its wake. Seasonably warm temperatures continue with temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal, although slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind the front Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.
The warm & dry pattern becomes even more pronounced early next week to end the month as upper level ridging strengthens over the midwest. Ensembles show temperature anomalies peaking around 15 to 20 degrees above normal Monday & Tuesday, meaning highs well into the 80s look likely across the area. Most guidance continues to depict a frontal passage for the end of next week, which will at least temper the the warm pattern somewhat, although ensemble guidance still keeps temperature anomalies above normal next weekend & into early October. At least a chance for showers & thunderstorms looks likely with this frontal passage sometime Thursday into Friday, although models remain spread on just how widespread or soaking this rain may be along the front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Minimal changes to the TAFs with timing for the dry fropa tonight changing little from the 12z TAFs. Only airport with some sub-VFR concern would be EAU. The front comes through late enough where they could get a little fog/br in the morning before the fropa. In addition, a brief MVFR cig will be possible out there as mixing gets going behind the front Saturday morning. Otherwise, this is a pretty uneventful TAF period.
KMSP...FROPA timing looks to be between 10z and 12z Saturday.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...MPG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion