Cushman, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS65 KBYZ 120137
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
737 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A low risk of severe thunderstorms exists Friday afternoon and
  evening, with hail and gusty winds being the main threats.
- Good chance for precipitation (30-60% chance >0.5 inches east
  of Billings) Friday through Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures with widespread low 70 degree highs by
  Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows an elongated trof extending from western
MT to central CA, and SW flow from AZ to our forecast area. Upper
level jet is in a good position (UT to western WY) and this will
keep the potential for showers and weak t-storms going for awhile
yet, but conditions do not favor severe storms now. Surface winds
have shifted to the NW-N across southeast MT, and trof axis is to
our E/SE. Furthermore, we will not see a low level jet w/ moisture
transport as we did yesterday evening. Finally, the morning
showers we experienced no doubt altered our air mass and resulted
in persistent mid level capping thru the peak heating time. The
mid level cap still exists. All of that said, best chance of
showers or t-storms through the remainder of the evening will be
east of Billings. By late tonight and early Friday, another wave
lifting out of WY brings the potential for early-day showers and
perhaps some embedded thunder. SPC continues to highlight our
region with a marginal risk of severe t-storms Friday and this is
something to monitor. Have made some pop/wx adjustments per the
aforementioned trends. JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Saturday night...
Convection is expected to lift to the northwest throughout the
evening. Severe storms will remain possible this evening with a
few showers staying through the overnight. Tomorrow will have a
similar setup to today with strong capping during the morning
hours. Convection getting off the ground will rely on strong low
level lapse rates and terrain leading to scattered convection. If
convection gets off the ground it will have 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE
from east to west and 30-40 kts of shear. Straight line
hodographs could lead to splitting storms. The Storm Prediction
Center (CPC) has issued a risk level 1 of 5 tomorrow with the main
threats being winds gusting up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch.
Anomalously high PWAT values 125-150% of normal will bring the
potential for heavy rain from these thunderstorms with the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) issuing a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall tomorrow.
Saturday will see elongated upper level troughing continue to
slowly move to the east. Low pressure over the Dakotas will wrap
moisture into Montana bringing continued chances (50-70%) for
showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.
Precipitation is expected to lift north and east throughout this
period. This precipitation will occur in a different environment
with soundings indicating deep moisture and limited instability.
Most areas can expect general thunderstorms Friday night through
Saturday. PWAT values 150-200% of normal will lead to a heavy
rain threat with WPC issuing a risk level 1 of 4 for locations
east of Rosebud County for Saturday.
Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with high 70s F to mid 80s F
from west to east. Saturday will see temperatures cool further
with low 70s F across the region. Torgerson
Sunday through Thursday...
Ensembles prog shortwave ridging to build over the area Sunday
into Monday, as a low shifts off to the east, and another
approaching low causes flow to become amplified. The building
heights will cause temperatures to warm above normal for most
locations. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s
and 80s.
By Monday night/Tuesday, the next upper low is forecast to
move into the region, bringing unsettled conditions through mid-
week. Moderate precipitation chances (30-60%) most days and
cooler conditions look to prevail. The chance for
exceeding 0.25 inches of rainfall Tuesday through Thursday is
roughly 30-60%. Highs are currently forecast in
the 60s to lower 70s Tuesday through Thursday, near to slightly
below normal for the time of year. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
The threat for showers and thunderstorms has dropped off for this
evening with the exception of KMLS which has about a 20% chance
of getting a TS between 03-06Z. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again expected to move up from WY around 09-12Z
Friday morning. There is some uncertainty in the intensity of
these storms, but main concern would be gusty winds 30-40kts.
Isolated showers are expected through the afternoon, with the
possibility for stronger storms late afternoon. Confidence is low
on the intensity of these storms as it will be dependent on the
convective activity from earlier in the day. TS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/081 056/072 053/081 056/078 052/068 049/072 049/074
    23/T    56/T    21/U    03/W    54/W    33/W    11/U
LVM 043/078 044/072 044/078 045/072 040/063 040/070 042/074
    24/T    24/T    11/B    25/T    54/T    32/W    00/U
HDN 054/082 054/072 051/081 051/080 048/069 046/071 045/074
    23/T    66/T    21/U    12/W    54/W    43/W    11/U
MLS 058/083 058/072 055/080 054/082 052/074 049/071 048/073
    32/T    76/T    31/B    11/U    43/W    43/W    21/B
4BQ 057/083 058/071 053/076 053/080 052/071 049/068 047/071
    22/T    76/T    32/W    11/U    33/T    43/W    21/B
BHK 055/085 055/072 052/076 051/081 050/075 047/070 046/071
    32/T    77/T    42/T    21/U    33/W    43/W    21/B
SHR 051/080 050/070 045/077 048/078 044/068 043/069 042/072
    24/T    77/T    31/U    02/W    55/T    44/W    11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion