Daggett, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

173
FXUS63 KMQT 251750
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front brings a round of isolated light rain showers
  across the area.
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern then continues
  with near to above average temperatures into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Quiet and dry weather continues this morning as high pressure
extends over the CWA. Where clearer skies have persisted over the
interior W, temps have dropped into the 40s. Mainly 50s are observed
elsewhere under the lingering insulating low cloud deck. Some patchy
dense fog has developed overnight and is expected to continue
through around sunrise.
A transient shortwave ridge today allows for a warmer day in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Clearing skies are expected as the ridge
pushes the lingering shortwave over Lower MI this morning to the SE.
Attention then turns to an incoming cold front from the NW. This
cold front crosses overhead this evening into Fri, trailing from a
deeper sfc low over Hudson Bay. Model soundings indicate a lack of
available moisture, primarily confined below 800 mb. That alongside
very little instability limit coverage. With PWATs around 1.1", a
few hundreths are possible in the isolated shra that do develop.
Some breezy N to NE gusts up to 20-25 mph are likely behind the cold
front, strongest near Lake Superior and in the Keweenaw. Temps then
settle in the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight, warming up near normal
on Fri in the upper 50s to 60s with brief weak high pressure passing
overhead.
A rinse and repeat is anticipated, this time on Sat as a sfc low
travels from N Manitoba out over Hudson Bay and sends another cold
front across the region. This also likely will struggle to produce
an precip. High pressure builds back in on Sun, extending overhead
through early next week as it shifts to Quebec. Alongside this,
ridging aloft builds over the Great Lakes supporting a warmer and
drier pattern into next week. Highs warm above normal in the upper
60s to 70s Sun/Mon, but remain warm in the 60s to low 70s much of
next week. More opportunities for clear skies under high pressure at
night provide better support for radiative cooling processes, so
lows in the 40s to 50s are expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions prevail across the UP today under mostly clear skies
as weak high pressure passes overhead. Winds mainly out of the WSW
around 10 kt at the terminals ahead of an approaching cold front,
with some gusts to 20 kt expected along the Keweenaw including KCMX
this afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers across the
west after 00z Fri as the front moves into the area, but chances
remain too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs and flight
conditions are expected to remain VFR. Winds will veer NW and
eventually NE behind the front tonight, with upslope flow expected
to bring some low stratus and IFR cigs back to KSAW after 06z Fri,
persisting through around 15z Fri. Otherwise expect VFR through the
period as high pressure returns behind the departing front.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
SW winds increase to 15-20 kts over the western half of the lake
ahead of an approaching cold front this evening. Some gusts to 25
kts are expected near Isle Royale and between the park and the
Keweenaw. These winds build waves up to 2-4 ft over the W by
tonight, highest waves between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw.
Winds veer NE behind the front tonight, increasing to 15-25 kts
across the lake. As a result, 3-5 ft waves are expected over the S
waters. Winds and waves then settle below 20 kts and 2 ft
respectively from N to S on Fri as a weak high pressure briefly
passes overhead. S winds increase Fri night into Sat ahead of
another cold front, bringing W winds of 15-20 kts across the lake
into Sat. WSW winds continue through Sun at 15 kts or less, then
become E early next week with 20 kt or less winds likely persisting
into mid next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jablonski
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...Jablonski

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion