Dalhart, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

794
FXUS61 KRNK 112351
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
751 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather is expected to continue across the entire
forecast area as high pressure will keep us dry through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Temperatures remain
near to just below normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1) Benign weather continues for tonight and tomorrow.
Quiet weather continues across the area, as high pressure centered
in southeastern Canada extends down over most of the Eastern
US. Little change is expected through tomorrow, with the high
continuing to suppress convection due to dry air aloft. An
upper level trough will also be over the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow,
but due to the aforementioned dry air, no precipitation is
expected for Friday. Mostly sunny skies will accompany the dry
weather, though more cloud cover will be present in the far
eastern Piedmont, where dewpoints are higher.
Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs tomorrow in
the 70s to low 80s, and overnight lows tonight in the 40s/50s.
The mountains will see some additional cooling overnight, with
the highest elevations possibly falling into the upper 30s due
to little or no cloud cover. This cooling will also allow
patchy dense fog to form in the mountain valleys. Patchy dense
fog will also be possible in the eastern Piedmont, where higher
dewpoints are located. Overall, the previous forecast remains
on track.
Previous Forecast Discussion...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure centered north of the region will maintain a dry
stable weather pattern with few deviations. Temperatures have
been subtly warming a degree or two each forecast period and
this trend is expected into the upcoming weekend with no
precipitation in sight. Still expecting some patchy fog
overnight, but aside from that no significant weather expected.
Blend of models continues to capture somewhat higher
concentration of cloud cover and dewpoints east of the Blue
Ridge with Piedmont under influence of shallow marine layer
from the coast. Dewpoints AOA 60 east of Highway 29 are not
nearly as pleasant as the 40s being observed across the
mountains. This impacts overall humidity minimums during the
afternoon with driest airmass reflected over the mountains. It
also impacts overnight low temperatures with lower dewpoints
allowing for a continuation of chilly late night temperatures
in the mountain valleys. Shaved 5 degrees off of the model blend
for the mountains with lows once again expected in the
40s...with potential for upper 30s for places like Burkes
Garden. For Friday...MOS looks good areawide with near seasonal
afternoon highs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Message:
1. Quiet weather continues into through the weekend. Temperatures
trend a few degrees warmer.
Surface high pressure centered over New England will continue over
the through the weekend, though sliding east and offshore during the
forecast period. Narrow ridging at 500mb develops over the central
US, and will expand slightly eastward. The combination of increasing
heights aloft and weakening northeasterly flow will lead to a
warming trend in temperatures, up to 5 degrees or so above normal
for the weekend. Dewpoints will also tick upwards, as the flow
becomes more easterly and transports more moisture in the Piedmont.
Otherwise, the weather will remain benign, making for a pleasant
fall weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry to start the week, precipitation chances increase after
midweek, though confidence is low.
2. Temperatures near to a few degrees above normal.
Through this forecast period, the dry weather pattern of late will
begin to change, and precipitation chances increase towards the
middle and end of next week. A cold front will drop southward
through the area Monday, reinforcing the dry and cooler airmass
through mid week. As the front slows and looks to stall over the
southeastern US, an upper level low develops along it, and looks to
track along the coast. This could bring some rain, potentially
heavy, to parts of eastern VA and NC. How far west this
precipitation would reach is still uncertain, as guidance diverges
pretty significantly in the location of development, timing, and
evolution of the low. Depending the location, may see chances for
showers along the southern Blue Ridge earlier in the week, with
upslope easterly flow bringing in some moisture from the Atlantic.
Again, details are uncertain and confidence is low in precipitation
probabilities at this time. Could also see breezy winds later in the
week, depending on the strength of the low and resulting pressure
gradient between it and the high pressure from the north.
High temperatures will be near to 6 degrees above normal, in the mid
to upper 70s in the west, and low to mid 80s in the east. Lows will
be more mild, as dewpoints rise, low to mid 50s in the west, and
upper 50s in the east. Temperatures towards the end of the week will
also depend on the movement of the low, as cloud cover and any
precipitation could bring highs down a degree or two.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Thursday...
High pressure continues to dominate the area, with area-wide VFR
flight conditions this evening and heading into the overnight
hours. Later tonight, radiational cooling due to little cloud
cover will allow for patchy mountain valley fog to form for
BCB/LWB. VSBY will fall to LIFR around 1/4 mile in LWB, while
staying around 1-2 miles and IFR in BCB between 08z-14z Friday.
Out east in DAN/LYH, higher dewpoint values will lead to patchy
dense fog affecting both terminals. LYH will see VSBY falling
to IFR levels around 1-3 miles for LYH between 05z-13z, whereas
DAN will see LIFR levels of 1/4 mile VSBY between 09z-13z. Any
areas of fog dissipates mid-morning, though clouds may stick
around through midday in DAN. Otherwise, quiet and clear
conditions are expected with scattered clouds in the afternoon
on Friday area-wide. All terminals will then remain in VFR
through the end of the period.
Confidence in the above forecast is high.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
The quiet weather pattern continues, with no rain chances expected
until at least the middle of next week. Area-wide VFR flight
conditions will persist outside of any nighttime mountain valley fog
that occurs, which would briefly bring down VSBY to sub-VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JCB/PM
NEAR TERM...JCB/PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JCB/PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion