Defuniak Springs, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

079
FXUS62 KTAE 270114
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
914 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through much of the overnight hours, especially across
the Big Bend and into south-central Georgia as the base of the
trough axis slowly translates east into tomorrow. Some localized
areas of heavy rain are possible in any slow moving areas of
storms. Additionally, patchy fog is possible by sunrise.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Our advertised cold front is currently moving into the far western
Florida Panhandle and will move through the area tonight into
Saturday. Ahead of the front, a batch of showers and isolated
thunderstorms continues to move across south central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend. This has largely been stratiform rain with
no significant impacts. We`re still keeping our eyes back to the
west along the cold front for any redevelopment of showers and
storms. Cloud cover has been stubborn to erode for most areas,
though we`ve seen pockets of sun peek through from time to time.
If enough instability redevelops, then we may see scattered
showers and storms flare back up. While the chances of severe
weather are very low, there is a bit more shear due to the
proximity to the trough, which could lead to a conditional threat
of a strong storm or two.
Most onshore showers and storms should fade late this evening and
overnight, though some may continue near the coast into the
eastern Big Bend and perhaps near Valdosta. Likely, only limited
impacts are anticipated. Given the rain today and amount of low-
level moisture in place, patchy fog will likely develop across
much of the area tonight. While widespread dense fog is not
anticipated, some localized thicker fog is possible with about a
30-50% chance of visibility less than 1 mile, especially west of
the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Lows will be in the mid 60s to
the northwest to the low 70s in the southeast Big Bend.
The front exits our area to the east on Saturday. Enough moisture
remains in place for scattered showers and storms ahead of the
front, mainly along the I-75 corridor down into the eastern Big
Bend. While there will be ample instability for storms, shear
appears a good bit weaker tomorrow, so not expected severe storms,
though a strong wind gust can`t be ruled out. Drier air overtakes
the rest of the area with PWATs coming down to 1.1 to 1.3 inches
for western areas. Highs will be around 85 to 90.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Drier air overspreads the area Sunday with troughing lingering
over the southeastern US. As AL94 lifts northward toward the
Carolinas early next week, reinforcing dry air and northerly flow
will keep us dry through the middle of next week. Where AL94 goes
mid to late week remains highly uncertain. However, it is expected
that as high pressure builds over the central and northeastern
parts of the US, the pressure gradient will tighten, leading to
perhaps some breezy but cooler weather late next week. But again,
this highly depends on the track and evolution of AL94 mid to late
next week which remains low confidence.
&&
.LONG TERM...
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions are present at this hour with scattered showers
slowly moving east ahead of a weak cold front. These showers will
continue east overnight while slowly weakening in the next few
hours. Main aviation concerns will be widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings
at all terminals. These will begin to develop after 06z this
evening with conditions at their worst around sunrise. Fog is also
possible as well. Cigs will be slow to rise after 12z, but all
sites should be back to VFR by 16-18z Saturday. Isolated showers
are possible ahead of the primary cold front which should move
through slowly on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light southerly to southwesterly winds tonight will become gentle
northwesterly breezes on Saturday behind a cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms will diminish in coverage Saturday, exiting to the
east of our waters. Winds will become moderate early next week as
the pressure gradient between AL94 and building high pressure over
the central and northeast parts of the US tightens with advisory
level winds becoming increasingly likely mid to late next week.
Seas will be around 1 to 2 feet through early next week,
increasing to 2 to 4 feet mid to late week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
A cold front will exit the forecast area on Saturday with scattered
showers and storms still possible near the Suwannee Valley. Somewhat
drier air moves into the area behind the front. Winds become
northerly to northeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph through the
weekend. This will lead to good to high dispersions across the area
Sunday and Monday. RH values will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s
each afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
As of 1 PM ET this afternoon, about 0.5-1.5 inches of rain as
fallen across the Florida counties with around 0.25 inches or less
north of the state line. Some heavier pockets have fallen near the
coast. This has been beneficial rain for our area. Still could see
another 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain before the event wraps up,
with higher amounts near the coast and into the southeast Big
Bend. But flooding potential is rather minimal. Little to no rain
is forecast beyond Saturday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  86  68  90 /  50  20   0  10
Panama City   70  87  69  91 /  40  10   0   0
Dothan        66  86  66  88 /  30  10   0   0
Albany        68  86  67  88 /  40  20   0  10
Valdosta      70  86  67  89 /  60  40  10  20
Cross City    71  88  69  92 /  60  60  10  30
Apalachicola  71  85  71  87 /  50  20  10  10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion