Dice, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

981
FXUS63 KJKL 280646 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
246 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is expected through the day on Monday.
- Moisture from Tropical Depression Nine could combine with an
  upper low to bring a chance of showers into east KY early this
  week.
- Confidence is increasing that the impacts from the
  tropical system will be minimal across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
There are no major changes to the forecast with the late evening
update. Added some increased cloud cover in the Sky grids to match
current trends over the southern part of the forecast area.
UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
Made minor updates to PoP grids, with all areas in the CWA
dropping below the 15 percent threshold beginning at 00z. Will
update the HWO at that time to remove mention of thunderstorms
from the forecast for the remainder of the Tonight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
An upper level trough over the central and southern Appalachians
in conjunction with surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s in
southeast KY has resulted in scattered shower/thunderstorms near
the VA border this afternoon (with a greater concentration further
southeast). Further northwest in the forecast area, slightly
drier air has limited the instability and kept the weather dry.
The precipitation is expected to die out early this evening as
surface based instability wanes and the upper trough weakens and
shifts slowly east.
On Sunday, with the trough gone and upper level ridging building
over the Midwest and Ohio Valley, as well as slightly drier air
arriving in southeast KY, the whole forecast area is expected to
be dry. This will carry through Sunday night.
With decent radiating conditions and light winds, modest
ridge/valley low temperatures are forecast each night, along with
valley fog.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2025
The main theme for the extended period is the growing confidence
that developing tropical storm system off the southeast coasts will
have limited impact to east Kentucky except a chance of showers and
possible thunderstorm for late Monday through Wednesday.
NHC track forecasts along with ensemble analysis and deterministic
models depict this system moving into or just off the carolinas for
late Monday through Wednesday. Increasing sub-tropical moisture
along with a shear axis/deformation zone across the central and
southern Appalachians will produce a chance of convection over the
area early next week.
For Monday, upper trough remains over the southeast United States
with tropical storm off the Florida/Georgia coast. For east
Kentucky, upper ridge over the Ohio valley will produce mostly dry
conditions.
For Monday night through Wednesday, tropical system will be just off
or along the Carolina coast. A shear axis will move across the
central Appalachians into Kentucky. Associated deformation zone and
influx of sub-tropical moisture into the central and southern
Appalachians will produce a chance of showers. Instability is
limited so thunder is not expected. Mean ensemble QPF depicts only
light amounts over east Kentucky during this period.
As stated above, Confidence is increasing that the tropical track
will stay well east of the area with limited to no impacts over east
Kentucky.
For the latter half of next week, upper and surface ridging will
build over the Ohio valley into the Appalachians keeping conditions
mostly dry and pleasant.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
High pressure will dominate through the period with VFR
prevailing for most of the time. The exception will be MVFR to IFR
and locally lower reductions to VLIFR at non-TAF site locations,
especially valleys due to fog. The fog should lift and dissipate
through about 14Z. The fog is still expected to evade the TAF
sites. Light and variable winds are expected through 15Z, before
becoming north to northeast at less than 10KT, before diminishing
to light and variable around 00Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion