Dodger Stadium, California Weather Forecast Discussion

921
FXUS66 KLOX 212058
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
158 PM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...21/114 PM.
Dry conditions with warmer temperatures are expected Monday.
Monsoon moisture will be increasing Monday night into Tuesday
resulting increasing shower and thunderstorm chances that may
continue into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...21/150 PM.
An area of instability moved into the coastal waters south of San
Nicolas Island this morning creating a lot of lightning strikes,
but all the lightning stopped short of Catalina. CAMs indicate
little chance of any additional storms the rest of today and
through tomorrow. High temperatures are expected to increase by
3-6 degrees tomorrow due 950 temperatures warming up combined with
a 2mb offshore trend to the east that will help drive that warming
to the surface.
The remainder of the short period through Wednesday will be
dominated by the next monsoon surge beginning Monday night but
peaking later Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest CAMs are
indicating the initial surge will impact the western portions of
the area first, mainly SLO/SB Counties, then spread into Ventura
and LA Counties. However, confidence in the specifics remains low
because any precipitation that develops will likely depend greatly
on the movement of the upper low and since it is detached from
the westerlies models often struggle. PW`s are still about a half
inch less than the last big surge from Mario but there is still a
potential for pockets of heavy rain. It`s still a little far out
for the CAMs but overall amounts from the lower resolution models
are under a half inch through Wednesday (highest western areas),
but with locally heavier totals where the stronger storms set up.
Rain rates mainly under a quarter inch per hour but locally up to
a half inch closer to the stronger storms.
Temperatures after Tuesday will be tricky and dependent on when
the clouds and showers arrive. Models trimmed back the cooling on
Tuesday likely in response to at least some of the ensembles
indicating drier/sunnier conditions for at least the first part of
the day. Higher confidence in cooling Wednesday now with most of
the solutions showing at least some clouds and showers lingering
through at least the morning.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...21/157 PM.
Forecast confidence remains low through the rest of the week and
many of the model solutions show the upper low meandering around
the area through as late as Saturday. And while the ensembles
indicate decreasing PW`s Thursday, they start increasing again
back to 1.5" Friday and Saturday. So while there are currently no
rain chances in the official forecast after Wednesday (aside from
some isolated mountain showers), the chances aren`t zero that
another monsoon pattern could develop later next week.
&&
.AVIATION...21/1758Z.
At 1732Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3200 feet with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX, KBUR, and KVNY.
Timing of arrival of cigs at KSBP and KSMX may be off +/- 2 hours
and minimum flight cats may be off by one. For KBUR and KVNY,
there is a 15% chance for LIFR to IFR conds between 10Z and 17Z.
Low confidence in remaining coastal TAFs. There is a 20-40% chance
for no low clouds, highest at KSBA. Otherwise, timing of arrival
may be off +/- 3 hours and minimum flight cat may be off by one
cat. There is a 30% chance for -SHRA at through at least 02Z at
KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB, with latest chances for KLGB. There is also
a 10-20% chance for -TSRA during this time frame, highest at KLGB.
KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 15% chance for -TSRA 19Z
through 01Z. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3
hours and minimum cig height could be off +/- 200 feet. No
significant east wind component is expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. 15% chance for LIFR to IFR
conds between 10Z and 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...21/153 PM.
Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels across the coastal waters through Thursday,
with localized NW gusts of 20-25 knots each afternoon and evening
across typically windier portions of the Outer Waters, including
far northwestern portions and from Point Conception to San
Nicolas Island. Localized NW to W wind gusts 20-25 knots across
portions of the Southern California Bight are possible Wednesday
and Thursday in the afternoons. Conditions are expected to remain
relatively benign along the Central Coast through Thursday.
Moisture from the south will continue to bring showers to the
coastal waters from San Nicolas Island to the Santa Monica Bay and
south through the coastal waters adjacent to Los Angeles and
Orange Counties through early this evening. Late Monday through at
least Wednesday, high confidence in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across all coastal waters. Low confidence in exact
timing and locations right now, but they will likely be
widespread. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of
producing locally gale force winds and rough seas, dangerous
lightning, heavy rainfall with reduced visibility, and
waterspouts.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion