Doran, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

423
FXUS63 KFGF 141944
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
244 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 1 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms today across
  much of eastern North Dakota and parts of west central and
  northwest Minnesota. Additionally, there is a 2 of 5 risk for
  severe thunderstorms across central North Dakota into parts of
  the Devils Lake Basin. Hazards could include isolated
  tornadoes, hail up to 1.25 inch in diameter, and wind gusts
  to 70 mph.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...Synopsis...
As the upper low transitions northeastward through the next two
days, moisture and flow with it will be taken away from our
area. Continued southwest flow on the backside of the low will
allow for additional shower and storm potential Monday and
Tuesday, but with much less potential for severe storms compared
to today. Gusty winds are expected to develop on the backside of
the low, with gusts potentially approaching as high as 45 mph
tomorrow afternoon.
As we progress into midweek, flow drastically worsens, but with
fairly progressive flow we should see near daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Because flow is weak aloft, the
probability for widespread severe convection is low.
...SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
An ongoing MCV over the Dakota state line has caused multiple
tornado warnings to our south and west. This complex should
continue to spin northward with the center away from our region.
Having said that, a front extends from the MCV eastward and
southward across the Dakotas. This region will be the area where
storms should fire off that will impact us. Satellite this
afternoon indicates ongoing deep convection initiation beginning
to occur further east away from the low, currently residing
along the Iowa/South Dakota state line and advancing northward.
Through the afternoon, the MCV/low will bring its front
northward with it, allowing storms to propagate to our area.
Ample low level instability exists thanks to ongoing advection
from southeasterly winds and diurnal heating. The strongest
midlevel moisture is closer to the upper low west of our CWA.
For this reason, there is two sections of severe expected with a
different degree of hazards.
The first region is the one to the west closer to the MCV. This
extends eastward into the Devils Lake Basin and Sheyenne River
Valley. Here, ample veering exists to generate enough vorticity
for supercell structures capable of damaging tornadoes. Because
of the saturation aloft, mid-level instability is a lot more
limited, so hail production will be much less. Heavy rain also
may contribute to flash flooding, although storm morphology thus
far paints the greatest chances west of our CWA. With the higher
moisture content, water loading may contribute to wind gusts to
70 mph, although this is only a medium level probability.
The second region is everywhere else covered by the marginal
risk. Here, much drier air exists aloft, but with stronger flow
from the south. As showers and storms push northward in tandem
with this environment, a very high DCAPE with very strong low
level flow will contribute to an environment capable of damaging
wind gusts, with a low probability for significant wind gusts
exceeding 75 mph. The tornado threat is much less thanks to
limited moisture content but still exists with modest veering.
The main question right now is whether or not we even see a
degree of storms that last long enough to become severe. Dry air
entrainment within this region looks to be an issue, but if it
does overcome dry air entrainment, expect the aforementioned
hazards to develop.
Severe thunderstorm potential will diminish substantially after
sunset, exiting the area midnight at the latest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue to lift through the early
afternoon eventually becoming VFR. A line of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop late this afternoon and
progress northward. Gusty and erratic winds are likely with
these storms, generally gusting to between 40-55 knots. Hail is
also a possibility with these storms.
Storms look to exit the area after 06z for the most part, with
lingering showers potentially continuing. Winds will shift to
more southerly, increasing after 12z tomorrow to sustained
between 15-20 knots.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion