Douglas, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

535
FXUS64 KOUN 201123
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Widespread scattered showers and storms are possible again
   this afternoon and evening with a few storms becoming strong to
   severe and capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
- Above-normal temperatures through the weekend before
   potentially cooling down to near-normal by the middle of next
   week.
- Daily rain and storm chances continue through the weekend and
   into most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
As of 1 AM, a complex of storms continues to push southeastward
across south-central Kansas towards north-central Oklahoma. With an
increasing low-level jet, storms are expected to persist through the
early morning hours with a potential for strong winds up to 50 mph
and small hail. Northwesterly steering flow will bring storms across
north-central Oklahoma through the early morning hours and pushing
into eastern Oklahoma by sunrise.
As the upper trough ejects northeastward, flow aloft will become
more zonal with a shortwave expected this afternoon. Warm southerly
surface flow will help to rise temperatures nearly 5-10 degrees
above-normal into the upper 80s to mid-90s. Convective temperatures
will be reached this afternoon and with the passing disturbance,
widespread isolated to scattered storms will develop during the
afternoon hours and push eastward through the evening. With a dry
sub-cloud layer and DCAPE values of ~1200 J/kg, any storm that
develops this afternoon could produce strong to damaging wind gusts.
Modest instability will increase along a potential surface boundary
lingering across northern Oklahoma, where storms will be capable of
also producing large hail. Localized flooding will also be of
concern with developing storms this afternoon, but with weak bulk
shear the lifespan of individual storms should remain relatively
short and the highest threat remains with the collapsing updrafts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight, the low-level jet will ramp up again with showers and
storms expected to continue through the overnight period. Some of
this activity may become strong with gusty winds. Additionally,
PWATs will increase across southern Oklahoma and into western north
Texas to around 1.5-2" (near and above the climatological max).
Thus, any shower or storm overnight tonight could be an efficient
rainfall producer with moderate to heavy rainfall rates and
localized flooding concerns.
Increasing northwesterly flow aloft will help to continue shower and
storm chances into Sunday afternoon before decreasing from west to
east Sunday night. Where storms persist, temperatures will stay a
bit "cooler" in the 80s, elsewhere the above-average temperature
trend continues.
An upper ridge will begin to build in Monday with the some of the
warmest temperatures in the forecast as highs approach triple digit
heat across portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas
(several degrees shy of potential record breaking heat). This ridge
will be short-lived as the next trough digs into the northern
Rockies. Increasing west-northwesterly flow will bring a chance for
overnight convection from the north.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Ensemble guidance continues to point towards a positively tilted
trough axis by the middle of next week. Thus, increased rain and
storm chances will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday, followed
by much cooler (near or slightly below-average) temperatures in the
70s to 80s by Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. The
largest uncertainty remains to be the strength, timing and position
of this trough axis which will play a significant role in how long
daily rain and storm chances continue through next week and how long
the cooler airmass will be in place.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Dry conditions are expected through mid afternoon, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms then expected to develop across much of
the area and persisting into tonight, especially across southwest
portions of the area. Winds will be generally from the south or
southeast, though erratic wind speed/direction is likely in
vicinity of thunderstorm outflow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  67  85  68 /  20  50  60  40
Hobart OK         93  66  90  68 /  20  60  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  93  68  92  71 /  20  50  60  20
Gage OK           89  62  85  63 /  20  60  20  10
Ponca City OK     91  65  85  65 /  40  50  60  50
Durant OK         93  69  90  71 /  10  10  40  30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion