Droop, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS61 KRLX 021005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
605 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure yields a prolonged period of dry and unseasonably warm
weather through early next week. The next chance for precipitation
arrives Tuesday night with an approaching cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...
Weak cold air damming against the higher terrain will result in a
light easterly downslope flow for areas immediately west of the
mountains. This should help to scour out any developing fog and keep
conditions clear this morning. Elsewhere, away from the mountains,
good radiational cooling under thin high clouds will allow for the
development of patchy river valley fog, which could be dense in some
locations before dissipating a few hours after sunrise.
Otherwise, an expansive area of high pressure and an upper-level
ridge will provide another dry and unseasonably warm day. Afternoon
high temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. These
temperatures are a few degrees cooler than some central guidance to
account for drier air mixing down, with afternoon relative humidity
values expected to dip into the lower 30s for most of the area.
Another mostly clear and cool night is on tap for tonight. Some
encroaching upper-level cloudiness from the west may limit
radiational cooling in some spots, but temperatures should still
fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The coolest temperatures will be
found in those areas subject to cold air drainage away from major
rivers. Patchy river valley fog will likely redevelop after
midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...
The weather pattern will remain stagnant through the period as an
expansive upper-level ridge remains anchored over the eastern half
of the country. This will result in continued dry weather with
abundant sunshine each afternoon. High temperatures will continue to
be well above normal, generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s, with a continued
threat of patchy morning river valley fog each day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...
The upper-level ridge will begin to shift east on Sunday and Monday,
allowing for a more southerly return flow to develop. This will lead
to a gradual increase in moisture, though dry conditions are
expected to persist through Monday. Temperatures will remain
unseasonably warm.
By Tuesday, an approaching cold front from the west will begin to
interact with the increasing moisture. There is a chance for some
showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon, but the
highest probability for precipitation currently holds off until
Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front moves through the area. At
this time, rainfall amounts look to be light, just enough to take
the edge off the recent dryness. A much more substantial
airmass change will follow the next cold front, bringing a more
fall- like feel to the air for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...
Any patchy valley fog dissipates through 13Z. Thereafter, just
thin high clouds passing through the region. Light and variable
winds are expected through the period. Some patchy valley fog
will be possible again tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              THU 10/02/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Sunday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion