Dubach, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

722
FXUS64 KSHV 270522
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Dry trend will continue through the upcoming weekend into much
   of next week.
- Milder temperatures will be here for a while as well with lower
   daytime humidity. Cooler temperatures will especially be felt
   at night with low temperatures through the weekend before
   temperatures begin to slowly moderate by the next work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Another beautiful evening across the Four State Region with the
drier air having settled in with much lower dewpoints and in some
locations, much lower temperatures tonight compared to this time
last night. There is enough of a temperature/dewpoint spread
tonight that we shouldn`t have to contend with any reduced
visibilities towards sunrise Saturday Morning. Thus for Saturday,
we should be looking at another pleasant day with some afternoon
cumulus and daytime high temperatures mostly in the middle to
upper 80s.
Upper ridging will be the name of the game across the Lower Miss
Valley into much of the Southern Plains through the weekend and
even into Monday. Thus, persistence is the best forecast tool in
the short term but there are some possible changes to our upper
level pattern as we approach the middle part of next week. A
longwave trough does approach our region from the Tx Hill Country
late on Monday, taking up residence across Central Texas and the
Upper Red River Valley by Tuesday, moving into our region late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. While there should be some ascent
associated with such a feature, if there is no moisture to
ascend, then its difficult to generate any precipitation so to
speak. Until we can get some return moisture in the lower levels,
then any upper forcing will just be wasted unfortunately.
There is pretty good agreement of the above mentioned longwave
trough getting absorbed by another upper level trough that will
actually try to retrograde westward from the Southeast U.S. into
the Lower Miss and/or the Tenn Valley by late next week. This
should result in at least some widely scattered convection across
our region beginning Wed Aftn and continuing through the end of
the next work week. For now the NBM is dry through the extended
and if the above mentioned upper level pattern can become
more consistent from model run to model run, then we should be
introducing at least some small pops for late next week with
upcoming forecast package.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
For the 27/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this forecast period, with mostly clear skies
continuing overnight for area terminals. Calming winds overnight
may allow for isolated development of patchy fog towards daybreak,
but based on current confidence, only carrying impacts at KELD for
now. VFR will continue into the daylight hours with the only
feature of note being a developing afternoon Cu field, followed by
increasing high clouds into the evening. Light winds overnight
will increase to sustained speeds of 5 kts during the day while
developing a NNE orientation.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  63  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  86  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  86  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  88  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  85  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  87  63  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  87  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  89  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion