Duchesne, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS65 KSLC 302156
AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
356 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will exit the area tonight,
bringing drier conditions for Wednesday into Thursday. A broad
trough and associated strong cold front are expected to move
through the area Friday into the weekend, with drier conditions
thereafter.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A Pacific trough is continuing to move across Utah
and southwest Wyoming this afternoon, with the associated cold
front parked over central Utah. Earlier rain was widespread over
northern Utah, producing some areas of heavy rainfall. As the
trough continues to weaken, associated showers and storms are more
scattered in nature, though still capable of producing heavy rain,
gusty winds, and small hail.
As the system exits this evening, associated precipitation will
tend to diminish, though a trailing grazing wave will bring a few
additional showers to far northern Utah during the overnight
hours. Behind that, high pressure centered over Mexico will build
into the forecast area, bringing drier conditions Wednesday into
Thursday with temperatures near seasonal normals.
Southerly winds are expected to increase Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening as a broad trough moves onshore along the Pacific
coast. Confidence is starting to increase about the details of the
system, with the majority of ensemble members now showing the
trough and associated strong cold front moving across Utah and
southwest Wyoming Friday into Saturday as an open wave, though
uncertainty remains about just how quickly the system will exit
the area.
EPS members are favoring a more progressive solution
where the system exits late Saturday/early Sunday which is favored
by current deterministic solutions. Other members, particularly
those still showing a closed low solution, show the system taking
considerably more time to exit the area. Regardless, it looks like
this system is primed to bring a real taste of fall with regard to
temperatures along with the potential for significant
precipitation, particularly for northern Utah. Drier conditions
are then favored to start the upcoming work week.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Light rainfall will taper off through the
afternoon, likely ending by 23-00z at the latest. While there is a
low chance of a few isolated showers between 06-09z, the overnight
hours should remain fairly quiet with prevailing southeasterly winds
through the morning ahead of a possible northwesterly shift
Wednesday afternoon. CIGs will continue to lift, with clear skies
expected after ~12z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light to moderate rainfall
across mostly northern/central Utah will continue to shift eastward
through the early evening, likely diminishing after 02-04z or so.
MVFR VIS/CIGs will still be possible within heavier embedded
thunderstorms, with a low (10%) chance of IFR. Across southern Utah,
showers have remained isolated at best, and will taper off through
the early evening. A round of light rain showers are likely to cross
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming overnight from 05-12z, but
conditions will likely remain VFR (80% chance).
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The trough and associated cold front moving across
northern and central Utah this afternoon will continue east,
exiting the area tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will linger
into the early evening before diminishing, with a chance of heavy
rain, gusty winds, and small hail with any storms that develop.
Drier conditions will move in for Wednesday into Thursday under
the influence of high pressure. However, a broad Pacific storm
system is expected to move across the area Friday into at least
the first half of the upcoming weekend, bringing significantly
colder temperatures and a high chance of precipitation.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
AVIATION...Cunningham
For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

NWS SLC Office Area Forecast Discussion