Dunglen, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

963
FXUS61 KPBZ 241650
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread precipitation chances today into tomorrow with a
passing trough. Drier conditions expected over the weekend with
a building ridge over the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected today/tonight
- Patchy fog possible
- Second wave of rain/storms expected after midnight
---------------------------------------------------------------
A broad trough stretching from the Great Lakes into the Great
Plains is bringing light to moderate rainfall to the region
early this morning. Thunderstorm potential remains low due to
weak instability and limited forcing. However, low-levl water
vapor imagery shows a drier airmass advancing into central Ohio,
which could support a few isolated, non-severe thunderstorms
this afternoon.
A brief window of patchy dense fog may develop late tonight,
mainly if conditions turn quiet and dry. However, if showers
linger, fog formation will be less likely. After midnight, rain
and isolated thunderstorms are likely to return south of
Pittsburgh as a strengthening low- level jet over the
Appalachians places our region in its left exit region,
providing sufficient vertical lift.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-  Heavy rainfall amounts expected south/southeast of
   Pittsburgh early Thursday
-  Shower chances taper off late Thursday as a cold front enters
----------------------------------------------------------------
Rain is expected to continue into early Thursday morning as the
trough gradually advances. The most intense rainfall rates are
likely between 6am and 10am, coinciding within the passage of a
a strong low-level jet across southern and central Pennsylvania.
The probability of an additional half inch of rain is high south
and east of Pittsburgh (above 70%), enhanced upsloping along the
ridges and the jet`s positions increases probabilities above 90%
for the Laurel Highlands, Preston, and Tucker county. Localized
swaths up to 50 miles wide could receive 1.5 to 2 inches of
rain, raising the potential for minor flooding in urban areas.
As the trough axis shifts east out of the Great Lakes,
precipitation chances will taper off from west to east early
Thursday afternoon. By late Thursday night, a few light showers
may form along the cold front moving eastern Ohio, but
increasing mid- and upper-level dry will keep coverage and
intensity isolated and light.
Above-average temperatures are anticipated during this period,
supported by deep southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and
increasing low-level moisture keeping dew points in the low-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light showers expected Friday
- A building ridge will likely support warm and drier conditions
  over the weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
Behind the departing trough and cold front, the risk for heavy
rainfall will diminish as drier mid and upper-level air moves
in. A few isolated showers may develop early Friday, mainly
across the higher terrain due to lingering low-level moisture
and upsloping as winds shift from the northwest.
Looking ahead, ensemble guidance has consistently indicated a
ridge building over the region later in the weekend and into
Monday. This setup will likely bring drier conditions and warmer
temperatures early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mix of LIFR fog/stratus is ongoing this morning at most area
terminals as today`s first wave of light rain showers moves
through from the southwest. Initially, this rain is light enough
that it`s actually resulting in modest improvements in both
ceilings and visibilities as it scours out fog and stratus.
However, periodic restrictions are likely to continue throughout
the day as additional rounds of heavier showers, and
potentially a few embedded thunderstorms, move through this
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms.
Due to saturated low levels and nearly calm surface winds,
widespread restrictions are expected again tonight. Similar to
last night, expect a mix of fog/stratus particularly in areas
that see the heaviest rainfall today. Another wave of showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms move into the area towards the
tail end of the TAF period, in the 10z-12z Thursday timeframe.
.OUTLOOK....
Similar diurnal trends with rounds of rain can be expected for
Thursday into Friday morning before an upper trough axis
finally shifts east of the region. There is then increased
confidence in a drier weekend period with longer intervals of
VFR conditions.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion