Duquette, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

255
FXUS63 KDLH 010655
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
155 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal for late this week
  with a few broken temperature records possible.
- Very low chances for precipitation through Friday, then
  increasing chances through the weekend though most activity
  may just miss us to the west.
- Windy on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Get ready for another warm-up with breezy conditions developing
over the next few days. You`ll notice winds picking up from the
south today as temperatures begin their steady climb, with just
a slight chance for a few showers overnight as a warm front
moves through. Conditions will be quite dry on Thursday with
gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph possible from late morning
into the evening. A passing shortwave may spark an isolated
shower. An even warmer air mass arrives for Friday, pushing
daytime high temperatures to near-record levels, about 20
degrees above what is normal for early October. The latest
forecast guidance suggests that any rain will stay farther to
our north for Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday (daytime),
meaning our weekend is trending warmer, drier, and gustier than
previously thought. This combination of conditions will
increase the fire danger, so please be cautious with any outdoor
burning.
A change finally arrives for the (late?) weekend, as a strong
cold front is expected to pass through Sunday night, bringing our
best chance for showers/thunderstorms and dropping temperatures
back to more seasonable levels. Guidance suggests that there will
be plenty of bubbling storm activity across NW MN and the
Dakotas where SW flow brings in a closed low on a 50 kt LLJ.
The big question is if it will drift a little further east or if
the storm track will stay to our west. The upper level forcing
suggests it will stay to our west until the cold front comes in
Sunday night though we are carrying chance PoPs over north
central MN suggested by the NBM with a mostly dry forecast for
NW WI for much of the weekend. The gusty winds will linger into
early next week, along with a continued chance for scattered
showers. The gustiest winds are expected Sunday where 40 to 50
mph gusts may be possible given the strong pressure gradient
that develops. Machine learning guidance still gives a small
chance for severe weather this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Mostly VFR though a band of IFR stratus extends west from Lake
Superior to KAIT - as this oscillates it may drift over KDLH
before dissipating after sunrise. East to southeast winds will
diminish overnight to 6-8 kt by morning. Winds increase again
later in the morning from the southeast at 10-12 kt, with wind
gusts of 16-21 kt.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
While the current Small Craft Advisories are ending this morning,
another period of brisk winds is expected tonight into
Thursday. Winds will shift to the south and strengthen,
particularly along the South Shore, with gusts around 20 knots
possibly requiring new advisories. Looking ahead, mariners
should keep a close eye on the forecast for Sunday, as there is
potential for a strong cold front to produce an abrupt wind
shift to the west-northwest with gusts of 25 to 35 knots
developing in the western part of the lake.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The upcoming very warm to hot period for mid-Fall is creating
a forecast of some possible broken record high and warm low
temperatures in the Northland. Below are the days which have
the highest chances of multiple stations tying or breaking
these temperature records. These forecast temperatures are
about 20 degrees F (highs) and about 25 degrees (warm lows)
above normal for early October. High temperatures on Saturday
could see a fair gradient across the Northland depending on
where the frontal boundary sets up and showers are ongoing north
of it and the very warm temperatures persist south of it. This all
means that the HIB forecast temperature may still decrease from
current, DLH has the highest uncertainty as the frontal boundary
could be right over or just north of the Twin Ports, and BRD
has fair chances of seeing those forecast low-80s.
Record High Temperatures:
October 3: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      83       82/2023
KINL:      84       84/2023
KBRD:      84       84/2023
KHIB:      83       83/1953
October 4:
KDLH:      83       83/1922
KBRD:      82       82/2011
KHIB:      78       78/2011
Record Warm Low Temperatures:
October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      63       58/1914
KBRD:      66       60/1914
KHIB:      58       54/1969
KASX:      62       59/1931
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ140>146-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe
CLIMATE...NLy

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion