Eakin, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

711
FXUS63 KABR 170525
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5) for severe storms across
  south central into east central SD this evening/overnight. Main
  threats are winds to around 60 mph and quarter size hail.
- A prolonged period of wet weather is expected Wednesday and
  Thursday, with most of the rain slowly coming to an end Friday
  into Friday night. Moderate rain over the same areas could
  create flooding issues. 2+ inches of rain possible (30-50%) over
  the multi- day event.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Precipitation is just starting to get going but is still pretty
patchy across the west and central portions of the CWA. Delayed
POPs again with this slower start but ample upstream returns
indicate we are just delaying the inevitable. See below for update
to the aviation discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Surface frontal boundary is positioned from south central/southeast
South Dakota up through the southeast CWA and into MN. We are
starting to see some cumulus buildup and convection initiation
along/ahead of the front across northern NE into southeast SD as
lift increases ahead of the approaching shortwave trough ejecting
out of the Rockies. CAMs continue to suggest much of our activity
across our CWA will await until later overnight and through the day
Wednesday. That said, it still appears the southern CWA stands the
best chance for any strong/severe storms this evening as activity
across NE eventually moves northward. Questions linger as to the
overall areal coverage of precipitation through 12Z, as well as the
northward extent as there are varying solutions in the CAMs.
Rain chances ramp up to greater than 70 percent on Wednesday as the
surface low begins to take shape and move northward into the area,
where it eventually stalls out and spins over us through the end of
the week. Rain chances stay greater than 70 percent through Thursday
night, then diminish to about 40-70% Friday. So, a wet period looks
to be moving in mid/late week, with heavy rain possible by the time
everything is said and done. NBM probability for 2 inches or greater
in a 72-hr period ending at 12Z Saturday is about 30-50% across the
northern CWA, which is a bit of a shift compared to 24 hours ago.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
As the system continues to approach, expect a gradual lowering of
CIGS and possible reductions in VISBY with showers and storms. The
nature of the system, broad and slow moving, means most of the TAF
period will contain some form of chances for moisture and possible
impacts.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...07
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...07

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion