Elkins, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

339
FXUS61 KRLX 292351
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
751 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda becomes a hurricane off the Florida coast
Tuesday, with a brief mountain shower before heading northeast
out to sea. A strong high brings dry weather through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM Monday...
The western edge of the high cloud shield around the outskirts
of the circulation of Tropical Storm Imelda was cutting across
the Ohio River as evinced by GOES-R satellite imagery, and
visible from at least most lowland locations. The first quarter
moon became visible from just inside the cirrus shield as the
sun set, and will come out of the cirrus shield from the
vantage point near the longitude of the forecast office within
the Ohio Valley tonight. In and near the mountains, this cloud
shield may be low and thick enough to impede fog formation to a
degree, compared with recent nights. The forecast is otherwise
on track.
As of 1130 AM Monday...
With high pressure at the surface and aloft the area is widely
supported by fair weather and sunny skies although the cirrus
shield from Tropical Storm Imelda is invading the area from east
to west across much of West Virginia. We cannot rule out some
isolated rain shower activity along the mountains due to
activity from T.S. Imelda into Tuesday afternoon.
Even a small chance of thunderstorm activity is possible in
southwest Virginia during Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain above seasonable through the period with mainly clear
skies across the western portions of the area with mid to high
clouds across the eastern portions overnight which will aid in
the development of valley fog once again as winds relax and go
calm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Monday...
During this period high pressure will dominate as an impressive
Omega Block pattern moves in directly overhead of our region.
This pattern will stabilized the atmosphere and promote dry
weather with mainly clear skies for this period and beyond.
Temperatures will moderate some by Thursday and become average
for this time of year from then on.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1130 AM Monday...
The aforementioned high pressure system will hold in place
according to medium range models for what seems like it will
last through the weekend promoting more dry and relatively
cloud free skies with temperatures rising slightly to above
seasonable by the end of the weekend. This period of long dry
weather will add to drought conditions across the area as there
will be no rain in the forecast for the extended period as well
as beyond this period.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 750 PM Monday...
High pressure will continue providing VFR conditions amid light
northeast flow surface and aloft, except east to southeast at
BKW early on.
The exception on VFR is overnight and early morning fog when
surface flow becomes calm. Even there, a high cloud shield
around the outskirts of the circulation of Tropical Storm Imelda
will tend to limit fog formation in and near the mountains.
Even so, expect at least as low as LIFR fog at EKN around
09-13Z, with brief IFR fog near dawn CRW and perhaps CKB. Expect
VLIFR dense fog along the Ohio River similar in timing to last
night, 09Z to 13Z HTS and to 14Z PKB.
An afternoon cumulus field will again form around 4-5 kft
Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on overnight/morning fog, otherwise
high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions due to fog overnight
into Tuesday morning may vary from forecast, especially given
the high cloud shield.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...TRM

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion