Ellis, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS63 KDDC 282200
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry pattern for southwest Kansas will continue through this
  week with no mention of precipitation for all of the NWS Dodge
  City forecast area through Sunday, Oct. 5th
- Persistent pattern will keep winds out of the south and highs
  in the 80s all week.
- The next cold front will not move into southwest Kansas until
  early next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
This afternoon`s synoptic setting is not all that different
than yesterday afternoon. The cutoff upper low over the Desert
Southwest was finally starting to feel the influence of upstream
polar westerlies which were amplifying southward across the
Northeast Pacific. The upstream large-scale digging trough off
the West Coast will continue to evolve off the coast through
mid-week, and the aforementioned weakening Southwest upper low
will further weaken and become absorbed by the southwest flow
aloft. All of the above mentioned will have essentially no
bearing on southwestern Kansas sensible weather, as we will
remain well in the warm sector with southwest flow aloft keeping
a lower tropospheric leeside trough in place.
The forecast through mid-week and beyond will continue to be
dry. There will be small, subsynoptic disturbances rotating
through the larger scale southwest flow aloft this week, but
none of these waves will be strong enough to provide the
necessary upward vertical motion for any organized precipitation
whether convective or non- convective. The absence of a frontal
zone will also prevent necessary lifting for organized
precipitation. In fact, we will likely not see a polar front
pushing across western Kansas again until much later in the
forecast period -- not until at least Friday Night or early next
weekend. By next weekend, there are some signals of a pattern
change more favorable for active weather across the Central
CONUS, including perhaps southwest Kansas, as a longwave trough
develops over the western half of the CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Excellent flying conditions will continue through this TAF
period, with VFR/SKC and varying amounts of scattered cirrus.
Light S/SE winds will prevail. After 18z Mon, some southerly
wind gusts over 20 kts are once again expected.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion