Elsmore, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

808
FXUS63 KICT 010821
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
321 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this morning along and west of I-135.
- Warming trend expected from today through the weekend.
- Rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures possible to
  start off the beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Early this morning, a couple of shortwave troughs where progressing
across the central plains: one weakening trough continuing to
linger across the Missouri River Valley, and another exiting the
Rockies and translating into the High Plains. Additionally, the
beginnings of a mid/upper ridge building in from the southwest
are starting to become evident. With the presence of the
aforementioned shortwave exiting the Rockies along with the a
veering LLJ advecting warmer mid-level temperatures from the
southwest, a region of ascent extending from north-central
Nebraska to northwest Oklahoma will support a few isolated
showers and storms generally along and west of the I-135
corridor this morning. Ascent should weaken later this morning
as the LLJ weakens, and rain chances should gradually wane later
this morning into the early afternoon hours. Some lingering
clouds may keep afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
With the ridge building in from the southwest, a period of warmer
temperatures is expected going into the weekend. Generally speaking,
afternoon highs and nighttime lows will be around 10 degrees above
average for the beginning of October; this will put afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to potentially the low 90s, and nighttime lows in
the mid 60s. These conditions will last through Saturday before the
next system arrives. A fairly stout shortwave trough is expected to
eject into the central/northern plains late on Sunday, and this will
likely bring some rain chances and cooler temperatures going into
the beginning of next week. The exact timing for the arrival of this
system has been trending later, so it`s entirely possible Sunday
could be another warm and dry day, and changes may not be seen until
Monday. Regardless, there is increasing confidence in a slight cool
down during the beginning of next week before some of the long range
models indicate a bit of a rebound in temperatures beyond 7 days
out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
will continue near 10 kt at GBD and RSL with speeds less than 10
kt at the remaining sites overnight. A few showers/storms are
possible towards sunrise across central KS. Confidence has
increased enough to introduce PROB30 groups at GBD and RSL.
Otherwise, wind gusts will increase by late morning to near
20-25 kt at GBD/RSL/SLN/HUT. Speeds will decrease to 10 kt or
less by 01Z Thursday.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion