Emerald Bay, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

274
FXUS64 KSHV 230014
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
714 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Welcome to the Autumnal Equinox a few moments ago at 119 PM CDT
- Summer heat lingers beyond today into tomorrow with an encore
   mention of triple digit heat indices Tuesday with higher RH and
   perhaps some compressional heating ahead of the cold front.
- Much needed rainfall will become widespread with the WPC EROs
   showing some coverage in our CWA through midweek, with the Day
   2 Slight Risk positioned for Tuesday night and early
   Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Southwest winds are showing the most gusts from 10-20 mph right
now, but really the winds are just as much SE and lighter for
several locales. We do see shallow SE flow on our 18Z sounding,
but SW before 2kft and extending up to the freezing level of
14kft. Then we see decidedly more NW flow with increasing speeds
noted from last evening when we were more due W. Air temps are
in the upper 80s and low 90s in a spot or two. We will keep near
average today and really again tomorrow, except for the added RH
levels. This will give rise to some Heat Index calculations near
105 on Tuesday. In addition, the compression of air with the
daylight cold front approaching may give rise to some added
heating, unless the clouds arrive sooner. So really a little
warming trend for us in the short term on lows and highs.
We will see another bit of peppering early and some more
scattered diurnally driven convection into the late morning and
all afternoon. Then toward sunset we will see an uptick in
coverage and thunderstorm intensity across our I-30 corridor.
This will continue overnight, so keep the weather radio on duty
at bedside Tuesday night. The SPC has a Slight Risk along and
north of I-30 and a Marginal Risk down across our I-20 corridor of
TX and LA. Our primary risks will be damaging winds and large
hail, and at this time, our tornado threat remains low areawide.
The rains will be advancing overnight, but coming in and exiting
may see some training storms affecting our SE OK or S AR counties.
So we will keep an eye out there for any changes back southward
on QPF with neighboring offices to our north posting flood
watches.
The cold front will be shifting our SW wind to NW by Wednesday
early morning into our far north and across I-30 before lunch.
The wind shift across I-20 will be more of an afternoon affair
with the chance for more rainfall accompanying this boundary along
and well ahead. Beyond midweek, we have one nice long break again
to dry out as our NW winds behind the boundary slowly work around
to N and NE by the weekend. This will bring in those better
feeling Fall temps actually a bit below average in some cases.
Look for a pleasant range of 60s for lows and 80s for highs to
close out the long term for now. The CPC 8-14 day outlook as
leaning above averages, which are falling thankfully and near
average rain chances. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For the 23/00Z TAF period, isolated convection continues to decay
across our airspace as sunset approaches this evening. Some mid
and high level debris cloud cover will persist through much of the
overnight period before low stratus begins to make a return along
and south of our I-20 terminals. In addition, cannot rule out some
patchy fog as well, especially in areas where recent rainfall has
occurred. Therefore, MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through the
morning hours, beginning around or just prior to daybreak before
gradually improving by late morning toward the midday timeframe.
VFR conditions will resume areawide by 23/17Z with increasing S/SW
winds between 8-12 kts on average with some higher gusts possible.
/19/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but could become
necessary by Tuesday afternoon and through the overnight hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  94  76  86 /   0  10  40  80
MLU  71  95  74  88 /  10  20  20  90
DEQ  69  90  69  82 /  20  30  80  60
TXK  73  94  72  84 /  10  20  70  70
ELD  68  92  70  82 /  10  20  40  90
TYR  73  92  74  83 /   0  10  60  80
GGG  73  93  73  84 /   0  10  50  80
LFK  73  93  74  90 /   0  30  20  90
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion