Emmett, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS63 KTOP 030813
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
313 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-average temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in
the upper 80s; 10-15 degrees above normal.
- Precipitation chances return Sunday night and persist into Tuesday
morning. Additionally, small precipitation chances (10-30%) may
exist mid week and into the weekend.
- Cooler air builds in by Tuesday returning temperatures closer
  to average.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A quiet morning is underway across northeastern Kansas as upper-
level ridging remains overhead. Looking at other synoptic features
around the US shows a large trough over the PNW and northern CA
region, zonal flow and jet streak moisture along the US/Canada
border and broad ridging over the southeastern US. With the upper
ridge expected to remain parked over the central US into the
weekend, expect warm temperatures to persist with highs in the upper
80s each afternoon. By Saturday, the aforementioned western trough
will begin to push into the central Rockies and deepen a surface
cyclone across eastern Colorado. This will further tighten pressure
gradients across the state leading to a well-mixed and gusty
Saturday afternoon. Some across central and north-central Kansas
could see southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph at times during the
afternoon hours Saturday. The main wave lifts north into the
northern Plains by Sunday, setting up a jet streak that will extend
from northeast Colorado to Lake Superior. Several waves embedded in
the southwesterly flow will move across north-central KS and central
Nebraska and help to return rain chances to the region. These waves
will help to push a frontal boundary into north-central KS by Sunday
evening beginning the first round of rain chances. This boundary is
expected to stall and keep most QPF confined to north-central,
central and far northeastern Kansas Sunday evening and into early
Monday morning.
Through the day Monday, the surface boundary will slowly try and
slide southeast through eastern Kansas spreading rain and storm
chances (30-40%) across the region. There is still a fair amount of
discrepancy with where most QPF will fall Monday into Monday night
as most forcing seeming to be confined to the 850/700mb boundaries
which remain further northwest in north-central Kansas. This may
also help to keep the cooler air closer to northern Kansas Monday
afternoon with warm temperatures across east-central Kansas. Lack of
precipitation and CAA keep temperatures in east-central KS in the mid
80s Monday afternoon barring a significant southeast shift in
precipitation in future model runs. Tuesday should see the cool
surface high slide in from the north bringing relief from the warm
weather as highs top out in the low to mid 70s. The remainder of the
week and into the weekend looks closer to average for temperatures
with some low-end (10-30%) chances for rain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR TAFs will continue through the period with winds increasing
out of the south late tomorrow morning to around 10 mph.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion