Esperanza Branch Library, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

676
FXUS65 KABQ 262332
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 441 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- A storm system will draw subtropical moisture northward over
  northern and central New Mexico with scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms tonight through Sunday, then spottier
  lingering precipitation into Monday.
- Much of central and western New Mexico are expected to receive
  rain amounts between a quarter to one inch. However, a few
  locations may receive 2 to 3 inches due to repeated rounds of
  storms. The greatest concern for flash flooding will be below
  the Ruidoso area burn scars.
- After a cool start to the coming week, dry and warmer conditions
  are expected Tuesday through Thursday with seasonably breezy winds
  each afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An upper level low pressure system will remain stalled over the
CA/AZ border tonight through Saturday night. The system will
continue to draw rich subtropical northward over the forecast
area with PWATs peaking around 125-200% of normal Saturday.
Tonight, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will
favor the area along and southwest of a line from Farmington to
Roswell, with periods of more numerous coverage over the southwest
mountains. Early Saturday morning, models are in fair agreement
on an area of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms lifting
northward across northwest and central parts of the forecast area,
including Albuquerque and perhaps as far north as Santa Fe.
Saturday afternoon and night, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, except for little or no activity over
the far northeast corner of the state. Rain amounts tonight
through Saturday night should mostly remain under a quarter inch,
except for higher amounts in the mountains and in few lower
elevation locations, and little or no accumulation on the far
eastern plains. With this forecast package we will issue a Flash
Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area from noon until 9 PM on
Saturday. Some high resolution models, like the HRRR and HREF, are
beginning to depict periods of moderate to potentially heavy
precipitation over the Ruidoso area burn scars Saturday night.
Once we gain confidence on the timing, we will consider issuing
another Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area for part or all of
Saturday night.
Otherwise, high temperatures will trend cooler on Saturday with
readings mostly in the 70s, except low 80s on the eastern plains,
and 50s and 60s in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Sunday through Monday, the upper low will open into a trough and
exit gradually northeastward across the Four Corners, CO and
northern NM. PWATs will remain very high on Sunday and Sunday
night with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across
much of the forecast area and a continued flash flood threat
mainly below the Ruidoso area burn scars. Extensive cloud cover
and precipitation should drop high temperatures further on Sunday
with readings in the 60s and 70s, except for cooler readings in
the mountains. Although 0-6 KM bulk shear is forecast to reach
around 25-40 KT over southern, central, and western areas on
Sunday afternoon, the cooler temperatures and only moderate
instability should prevent storms from becoming severe. However,
additional rain amounts from 0.10-1.00 inch are forecast mainly
from the central high plains westward, with locally higher amounts
that could result in isolated occurrences of minor flooding;
except for flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars. On
Monday, scattered to isolated and light showers and thunderstorms
area forecast as drier air begins to work its way over the
forecast area from the west.
In the wake of the upper trough, an active storm track over the
Pacific NW US will steer very dry air over NM from the southwest
with high temperatures climbing near to several degrees above
average across the forecast area by the middle of next week. A
ridge of high pressure will then begin to build northward over the
forecast area on Thursday causing high temperatures to climb as
much as 10 degrees above 30-year averages on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Some isolated to scattered showers and storms across western and
south central areas this evening before tapering off with a
shield of mid level clouds overnight. Guidance shows a band of
showers with possible embedded storms across west central NM
between KGUP and the ABQ Metro Saturday morning potentially moving
northeast to KSAF come the late morning hours. Some clearing in
the mid level clouds will allow scattered to numerous showers and
storms to develop across western and central NM midday Saturday
moving northeast. Storms will be capable of producing localized
areas of MVFR conditions due to heavy rainfall and well as gusty
and erratic winds of up to 35 kts. Included PROB30s for respective
TAF sites across western and central NM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Wetting precip will probably be pretty spotty over the far eastern
plains with the passing storm system this weekend. South and southwest
winds will then become seasonably gusty each afternoon in the
coming work week. Despite the drier air moving in, minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent areawide
through the coming work week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  76  54  71 /  10  50  60  60
Dulce...........................  39  76  44  66 /   5  50  70  70
Cuba............................  48  72  47  66 /  20  70  70  90
Gallup..........................  47  73  45  70 /  50  60  50  60
El Morro........................  47  70  46  67 /  50  60  60  70
Grants..........................  47  74  46  69 /  50  70  70  80
Quemado.........................  46  73  45  71 /  60  40  50  50
Magdalena.......................  52  71  51  67 /  40  60  70  80
Datil...........................  46  70  46  67 /  60  60  60  70
Reserve.........................  47  75  46  76 /  70  30  50  40
Glenwood........................  51  78  51  79 /  70  40  50  40
Chama...........................  42  69  42  63 /   5  40  60  80
Los Alamos......................  53  69  51  62 /  10  60  60  80
Pecos...........................  50  72  48  63 /   5  60  70  80
Cerro/Questa....................  46  73  46  66 /   0  30  40  70
Red River.......................  40  63  39  57 /   0  30  40  70
Angel Fire......................  33  67  34  61 /   0  30  40  70
Taos............................  43  75  46  68 /   0  30  40  60
Mora............................  46  69  44  62 /   0  50  50  80
Espanola........................  49  76  51  70 /   5  50  60  80
Santa Fe........................  53  72  52  65 /  10  50  70  80
Santa Fe Airport................  50  75  50  67 /  10  50  70  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  76  58  70 /  20  60  80  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  78  56  72 /  20  50  70  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  80  56  75 /  20  50  70  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  78  57  72 /  20  50  70  70
Belen...........................  56  80  54  74 /  30  50  70  70
Bernalillo......................  57  79  55  73 /  20  50  70  70
Bosque Farms....................  55  79  53  74 /  20  50  70  80
Corrales........................  58  80  56  73 /  20  50  70  70
Los Lunas.......................  56  79  54  74 /  20  50  70  70
Placitas........................  56  74  54  68 /  20  50  70  80
Rio Rancho......................  58  78  56  72 /  20  50  70  70
Socorro.........................  58  81  57  74 /  40  60  70  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  70  49  64 /  20  60  80  80
Tijeras.........................  54  72  51  66 /  20  60  80  80
Edgewood........................  50  72  49  67 /  20  60  70  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  74  48  68 /  10  60  70  80
Clines Corners..................  51  70  49  64 /  10  60  70  80
Mountainair.....................  51  72  49  67 /  20  60  70  80
Gran Quivira....................  51  72  49  66 /  20  60  70  80
Carrizozo.......................  56  74  54  70 /  20  60  70  80
Ruidoso.........................  52  67  50  62 /  30  70  80  90
Capulin.........................  47  72  48  67 /   0  20  20  30
Raton...........................  46  75  48  71 /   0  20  20  40
Springer........................  47  78  50  71 /   0  20  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  48  73  47  64 /   0  40  60  70
Clayton.........................  53  80  55  76 /   0  10   5  10
Roy.............................  50  77  52  70 /   0  20  40  40
Conchas.........................  54  83  57  76 /   0  20  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  55  78  54  71 /   5  40  60  60
Tucumcari.......................  54  82  54  76 /   0  20  30  30
Clovis..........................  58  83  58  79 /   0  20  30  30
Portales........................  59  84  58  79 /   0  20  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  58  82  57  76 /   0  30  50  50
Roswell.........................  61  83  59  78 /  10  40  50  50
Picacho.........................  56  79  54  72 /  20  60  60  70
Elk.............................  53  75  51  69 /  20  70  60  80
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion