Estero, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS62 KTBW 281129
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions and light north-northeast winds around 5-10 knots
will prevail at all terminals through the period. There`s a chance
of showers and storms starting after 20Z, so will hold VCTS at all
terminals through around 01Z. Clearing conditions expected after
02Z and continuing into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
All eyes will be on the east coast of Florida over the next few days
at Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to move north through the
Bahamas. Currently the forecast is keeping TD9 well off the east
coast of Florida. That means we will see very minimal impacts across
West Central Florida. For our Sunday TD9 will help to keep some
higher moisture mainly over the interior which will keep scattered
showers in place.
By Monday TD9 is expected to develop into a Tropical Storms and then
a hurricane off the Space Coast. Regardless of development the
system will help to bring some drier air into the forecast for us
helping to keep rain showers low. This drier air will be sticking
around through Wednesday.
By Thursday upper level troughing returns along with the moisture.
This will help to bring some scattered showers and storms back into
the forecast through next Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
TD 9, which is currently between Cuba and the Bahamas, is
forecast to push north through Monday and slowly develop into a
Hurricane. Even through we will not see any direct impacts on the
Gulf side we will see winds out of the north and staying breezy
through the period. Winds will be between 10 to 15 knots through
Monday. After that we will be seeing winds increasing to 15 to 20
knots from Monday night through Tuesday night before dropping
back down to 10 to 15.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  75  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  91  75  89  74 /  50  20  30  10
SRQ  91  74  89  76 /  40  20  20  10
BKV  93  72  89  71 /  30  10  30  10
SPG  90  77  88  76 /  30  20  20  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion