Exmore, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

462
FXUS61 KAKQ 241101
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides farther offshore today through Thursday
bringing very warm temperatures and more humid conditions. A
slow moving cold front moves into the area Thursday night and
Friday, with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the
weekend. This will bring more unsettled conditions late this
week into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry and rather warm today with some late day and early
  evening showers and thunderstorms possible north and northwest
  of the Richmond metro.
GOES water vapor channels depict a longwave trough from
surrounding a closed low over the Great Lakes with the axis
lagging back into the central Plains. Meanwhile, a broad ridge
is located over the Subtropical western Atlantic. There is WSW
flow aloft ahead of the upper trough from the Mid-South through
the Ohio Valley, with several shortwave features noted within
the broader flow. At the surface, high pressure is centered
offshore, with a lee-side trough over the Piedmont, and a wavy
cold front well to the NW associated with the upper trough.
Mostly clear early this morning and rather warm for late
September with temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70F. Patchy
fog/stratus is possible early this morning across interior NE
NC and s-central VA.
WSW flow aloft prevails today into tonight with much of the
local area under the influence of the upper ridge. Weak
shortwave energy sliding N of the region could trigger a few
afternoon/early evening showers/tstms across the northern tier
of the area, with PoPs mainly 20-40% for these locations, and
locally 30-50% for the NW Piedmont. Otherwise, partly to mostly
sunny today and rather warm for late September with highs in the
mid 80s to near 90F. Partly cloudy and mainly dry tonight aside
from some lingering showers across the N. Warm and humid with
lows in the upper 60s to around 70F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- The upper height pattern amplifies for the second half of the
  week with a deep trough taking shape over the Mississippi
  River Valley, translating E and NE Thursday into Friday.
The upper low over the Great Lakes becomes an open wave and
shifts to New England Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, another
upper low develops on the tail end of the broader upper trough
and settles over the Mid-South by Friday. During this time, the
upper ridge remains offshore over the western Atlantic. The cold
front associated with the upper trough slows down as it
approaches the local area later Thursday into Thursday night,
before finally dropping into the area Friday. Given the split in
the upper pattern, the best forcing with the northern wave
remains N of the local area, while better ascent with the
developing upper low initially remains to the SW. Therefore,
despite PW values 150-180% of normal (1.8 to nearly 2.0"), less
coverage of heavy rain is expected Thursday and Friday as any
convection should be less organized with lesser broad scale lift
locally. Thursday morning to early afternoon should be mainly
dry, with some showers/tstms across the N later in the afternoon
and evening. Lesser coverage is expected with the diurnal cycle
later Thursday night into early Friday, with redevelopment
expected over SE VA/NE NC Friday. The severe risk is low
Thursday (marginal, level 1 of 5) with the main threat being
damaging wind gusts. Highs Thursday will again be in the mid 80s
to near 90F, then not quite as warm Friday with highs in the
lower 80s, after morning lows in the mid 60s to around 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Unsettled pattern continues this weekend into early next week
  with near seasonal temperatures.
The upper trough lingers over the Mid-South Saturday and slowly
lifts to the NE Sunday. The weekend is trending more unsettled
with the 00z/24 EPS showing more QPF than the 00z/24 GEFS. The
EPS returns PW values to 150-180% of normal while generally 130-
150% of normal in the GEFS. Highs Saturday and Sunday are
mainly in the mid/upper 70s, with lows in the 60s. The upper
trough remains over the Mid-Atalntic and Southeast early next
week as strong high pressure builds SE across Ontario and
Quebec. Meanwhile, the ECWMF/GFS/CMC and the EPS/GEFS ensembles
are showing increasing confidence of tropical development in
vicinity of the Gulf Stream (AL94 with AL93 farther offshore).
How much if any impact this has locally remains a low confidence
forecast, but it is worth monitoring. Regardless, rain chances
linger into early next week. High temperatures will mainly be in
the 70s early next week with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure is centered offshore as of 11z. VFR with FEW-SCT
mid and high clouds and a light southerly wind at most sites,
with LIFR conditions in fog at ECG. Fog should lift at ECG by
13z. Elsewhere, there is a low probability of brief vsby
restrictions ~12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
later this morning through the aftn and into tonight. A 20-30%
chc of showers and possibly a tstm arrive from RIC-SBY later
this aftn and evening. The wind will mainly be SW 5-10kt today
with a shift to SSE along the coast by mid-aftn. Any lingering
showers are expected to dissipate later tonight. Patchy
fog/stratus are possible again late tonight and toward 12z
Thursday.
A cold front slowly crosses the region Thursday and Friday.
Showers are likely with a few tstms possible during the aftn
hours. Occasional sub-VFR conditions are expected. A chc of
showers lingers into Saturday and potentially Sunday as well.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
- Winds increase later today between 10 to 15 kt out of the SSE
potentially leading to a brief SCA conditions across bay.
- Moderate rip risk for all beaches today.
- Another chance of SCA wind conditions return Thursday into Friday
night primarily for the Ocean Zones.
Morning analysis shows a 1018mb high pressure just off the east
coast. This high is allowing winds to generally be out of the SSE
around 10 kt. Seas this morning have subsided from yesterday and are
between 3 to 4 ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across the bay.
Through the day winds will begin to increase as the pressure
gradient from the the high pressure to the east and low pressure
developing to the west tightens. Winds will continue to remain out
of the SSE between 10 to 15 kt. There is the potential late this
afternoon and into this evening that there could be some brief 20kt
gusts across the bay. However, local wind probs remain between 30 to
40% of frequent gusts at or above 18 kt, the pressure gradient does
not look to be as tight, and typically SSE winds tend to
under perform over the waters. Therefore, no SCA have been issued for
the bay at this time. Seas through the day will generally remain
benign with waves between 3 to 4 ft across the ocean and 1 to 2 ft
across the bay. Through tonight and into Thursday morning winds will
remain around 10 kt before increasing to 10 to 15 kt across the bay
and 15 to 20 kt with possible gusts nearing 25 kt across the ocean
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. This
could lead to a brief period of SCA for the ocean waters. In
addition, local wind probs increase across the ocean to 40 to 50% of
wind gusts at or above 25kt. Seas on Thursday will continue to be
around 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft across the ocean.
However, will note, depending on the exact direction of the wind
thursday, it could potentially build seas to 5 ft across the
northern ocean zones and SCA maybe issued. However, confidence is
low at this time and trends will be monitored. By Friday the front
will stall leading to weaker winds and leading to low confidence in
the wind direction. By the weekend, high pressure will build in
bringing benign marine conditions across the local waters.
Moderate rip risk is in the forecast for today. Although the swell
will gradually subside today , it will still be at 3 to 4 feet which
combined with the long period of 10 to 11 sec.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RHR
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...HET

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion