Fairview, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

335
FXUS63 KSGF 181125
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon through this
  evening. A few severe storms with wind gusts to 60 mph and
  hail to the size of quarters will be possible with the
  stronger storms. Localized rainfall amounts up to two inches.
- Highs in the 90s continue for one final day, especially east
  of Springfield.
- More seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will
  occur into the weekend and perhaps into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show upper level energy moving closer
to the area from the west. The mid level ridge that has allowed
for the hot temps lately was beginning to finally lose its grip
on the region. 850mb temps on the 00z KSGF sounding were still
high and came in around 20C which is >90th percentile. An area
of showers and thunderstorms was pushing into eastern Kansas
early this morning, likely induced by a mid level vort max, low
level jet and weak elevated instability. Otherwise most of the
area was partly cloudy with temps in the 60s to around 70.
Today: Short term guidance is in decent agreement that the
current activity will move through eastern Kansas and perhaps
into west central Missouri through sunrise before either
dissipating or moving north of the region. Therefore for most
areas the morning hours will be dry and will allow for
destabilization. While there will be increased cloud cover, high
temps should still be able to reach the upper 80s to low 90s
with the highest temps east of Springfield. By mid to late
afternoon, additional lift from the upper levels and an incoming
surface front will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to increase across the area. The 00z HREF
reflectivity paintball plots show a strong signal/consensus for
thunderstorms developing along and either side of the Highway
65 corridor from mid afternoon into the evening and then another
corridor of thunderstorms just west of Springfield sweeping
through the area along the front during the late evening hours.
Forecast soundings do show about 2000j/kg of ML CAPE and
increasing wind shear (20-25kts). Therefore some of the
thunderstorms could be severe with damaging winds up to 60mph
and hail to the size of quarters. Also of note will be the
increasing PW values (up to 1.6in). This will allow for
efficient rainfall production and the HREF LPMM does show
localized pockets up to 2 inches with the storms today.
Overnight: Overall a downward trend of showers and storms will
occur as the front moves in however isolated to scattered
storms still remain possible given the lift and low level jet
over the area. Confidence is low in the current precip chances
overnight into early Friday with additional future adjustments
likely.
Friday: Shortwave energy will largely remain north of the area
during the day and guidance has begun to back off and limit the
amount of redevelopment of showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening. Areas east of Highway 65, closer to the
lingering front may be the area to watch for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development. Highs will likely be tamped down into
the low to middle 80s, however if more sunshine occurs then
upper 80s will be favored.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Saturday and Sunday: Ensembles suggest an unsettled pattern will
occur with a more zonal upper level pattern allowing for weak
disturbances to move through the area. Rain chances are
currently lowest during the first half of Saturday with
increasing chances Saturday night through Sunday as a stronger
wave moves through. There also looks to be a low level jet
nosing into the area as well and precip chances have now increased
into the 60-70% range. While it wont rain all weekend, there
will likely be periods or windows of showers and storms which
are hard to pin point at this time range. Instability looks
lower than previous days therefore not currently seeing the
signal for any severe storms. In general, NBM high temps seem
reasonable with many areas staying in the lower to middle 80s
which is closer to average.
Monday through Wednesday: Ensembles have begun to converge on a
pattern shift with a strong upper level low diving southeast
into the central plains early next week. This will not only keep
precip chances going, but will also act to keep seasonable
temps. While current precip chances are around 30-50%, these
will likely increase if the current forecasted pattern pans out.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are likely through most of the TAF period.
Thunderstorm chances increase late this afternoon and evening
with the highest chances at SGF and BBG. Given the increased
confidence, we have gone with a tempo group at the sites with a
prob 30 for a few hours after 01z. Some of the thunderstorms
may be strong with gusty winds. Winds will be light outside of
thunderstorms. A brief period of northwest winds will occur this
morning then a gradual shift to the west or west southwest for
late morning and afternoon.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion