Falcon, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS62 KRAH 161702
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drift into southeastern Virginia today and
tonight, then linger while weakening, through mid-week. Canadian
high pressure will otherwise extend across the eastern US.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Tuesday...
What a difference 24 hours makes for central NC. Observational
trends continue to show the offshore low still off the coast of far
northeastern NC at the moment. The latest hi-res models show that it
should gradually make a more WNW turn as opposed to northerly as the
afternoon and evening wears on. The upper-low is still tucked near
the southern Piedmont and that should help it turn more NW in a kind
of Fujiwara effect. This appears to be happening given the latest
radar trends from the Wakefield, VA radar. Any additional rain may
be tough to come by, however. The latest runs of the HRRR continue
to focus additional rain mainly into VA and northeastern NC. We
cannot rule out some light rain or sprinkles clipping the northeast
Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain into the early evening hours as
wrap around low-level 925 mb moisture continues to rotate
counterclockwise around the low as it moves into southeastern VA
tonight and early Wed. Amounts are expected to be light at best,
with little if any over the Triad, southern Piedmont, Triangle, and
Sandhills. We raised highs for this afternoon with the drier trend.
Expect upper 70s west and southwest to upper 60s to around 70 in the
east. Tonight, cannot rule out some spotty light rain across the
north. Otherwise, dry, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Tuesday...
* Trending Drier and Warmer
A vertically stacked low over the VA Tidewater region will meander
through the day before gradually jogging eastward off the coast
Wednesday night.
Isolated to widely scattered wrap-around showers may linger across
the northern coastal plain early, but the prevailing trend will be
drier conditions.
A sharp NE to SW gradient in cloud cover will result in a notable
temperature contrast across central NC, with highs ranging from 65
to 70 in the NE under persistent cloud cover, to 80-85 in the SW
where skies are expected to be partly to mostly sunny. An
occasional light N-NWLY breeze of 12 to 17 mph should continue into
the afternoon, especially from the Triangle, north and east.
Lingering clouds should gradually thin out Wednesday night, with
lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 105 PM Tuesday...
* Mostly dry through the weekend. Precipitation chances increase a
  bit early-middle next week.
* Near to above normal temperatures expected through the period.
Aloft, the s/w should lift newd away from the area on Thu/Thu night.
A transient ridge will move ewd across the region Fri and Sat, ahead
of another s/w moving across the nrn Plains. The model solutions
begin to diverge fairly quickly over the weekend. While an
additional s/w or two and a potent low track ewd across the CONUS
through Tue, the strength, location, and track vary significantly
amongst the medium-range guidance. Both the EC and GFS show a
coastal wave potentially bringing some showers/storms inland Sun-
Tue. At the surface, in the wake of the coastal low moving away from
the area Thu/Thu night, a surface boundary may slide across central
NC on Fri, with high pressure (moving esewd from nrn Ontario to the
nrn Atlantic) ridging into the area Sat-Mon. The ridge should
sharpen and shift nwwd toward the mtns on Mon as the high moves ewd
over the nrn Atlantic and the coastal wave/inverted trough
strengthen.
The weather should be largely dry through the weekend, with some
increased chances for showers/storms, mainly east, Sun-Tue
associated with a coastal wave. Temperatures should be near to
slightly above normal for most of the extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 PM Tuesday...
Largely VFR will start the TAF period, except for MVFR at RWI.
Observational trends have continued to track further north and east
with the offshore low, with attendant rain void of most of the
terminals. Forecast guidance continues to show that the offshore low
will track northwest into far southeastern Virginia over the next 12-
18 hrs. Some wrap around moisture may still favor some light rain
near RWI and RDU this evening, with the best chance at RWI. However,
at worst, some MVFR visibilities would be possible at RWI, though
confidence is low on if it may materialize. Otherwise, wrap around
low-level 925 mb moisture will favor a prolonged period of MVFR
ceilings at RWI through the majority of the TAF period. These MVFR
ceilings could briefly impact RDU between 18 and 00z, but most of
this should hover east of the terminal. VFR should prevail at
GSO/INT through the period. Gusts from the north and northeast to 20
kt should weaken tonight. A brief period of IFR ceilings could
impact RWI early Wed but confidence was too low to include given the
continued drying trend with the offshore low.
Outlook: Areas of MVFR stratus may linger into Wed night at RWI.
Otherwise, VFR should prevail Thu through Sun.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren/MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Kren

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion