Farwell, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

910
FXUS64 KLUB 251701
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1201 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- After tonight, temperatures warmer than normal through the
   forecast period.
- Dry, apart from slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
   near the New Mexico state line Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
A trough located over the California/Nevada state line will continue
to dig southward towards the US/Mexico border, while the ridge over
the western high plains will progress slightly east into the Great
Plains, losing some intensity during the process. The trough over
the Mississippi River will shift slightly east over Tennessee. A
split flow regime will remain in place as a result with the polar
jet remaining over southern Canada and the subtropical jet lingering
over the southern US.
The surface high will continue to shift east, which will help guide
a northerly breeze into the region as peak heating is reached
Friday. Ridge-like conditions with clear skies and lows reaching
into the 50s will prevail Thursday night. Highs Friday will reach
the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s in localized spots under sunny to
mostly sunny skies. Post peak heating, winds will shift to
northeasterly and weaken slightly. Lows Friday night are expected to
range from mid 50s to low 60s.
Garber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Upper level ridging will generally remain the most important feature
during the long term portion of the forecast. The main theme through
the forecast period, then, will be one of temperatures running
warmer than normal and precipitation chances generally quite
limited. The biggest (although relatively minor) disruption will
come with an upper level low that will bottom out near the
confluence of California, Arizona, and Mexico Friday and Friday
night before opening up and lifting northeastward through the
weekend. Monsoonal moisture is progged to increase ahead of the low
across Arizona and New Mexico with a decent chance for showers and
thunderstorms there, but lift and moisture from this regime is
expected to remain along and west of the CWA border with New Mexico.
NBM continues to shrink the area of slight chance PoPs in time and
space now only in the Saturday through Sunday time frame and limited
to about one county`s width from Parmer down to Yoakum. This remains
in line with expectations from this type of pattern and are accepted
as is. The other factor from the western low opening and lifting
northeastward will be a slight decrease in heights/thicknesses
mainly Sunday and Monday with a modest decrease in forecast
temperatures from the very warm (on the order of 6-8 degrees above
normal) of Friday and Saturday to something closer to 2-4 degrees
above normal. However, the ridge builds back in behind the departing
trough with a return to highs running 6-8 degrees above normal,
i.e., mainly in the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s in the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

NWS lub Office Area Forecast Discussion