Felch, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

432
FXUS63 KMQT 180648
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
248 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible today
  and Friday across western Upper Michigan.
- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances exist through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Mid to upper level ridging is currently observed stretching north
into the Upper Great Lakes with an area of broad troughing and two
closed lows upstream across the Northern Plains per RAP analysis and
GOES Water Vapor imagery. Multiple shortwaves are noted rotating
around this area, including one lifting through northern Minnesota,
which helped focus shower/thunderstorm activity along a passing cold
front this afternoon and evening. Mild and moist air lingers
overhead otherwise, with widespread 50 and 60 degree temperature and
dewpoints. As the night progresses, northerly flow already being
observed will advect in a cooler airmass, which will help more
locations fall into the 50s. This cooling will likely result in fog
developing, which may be dense in some locations for the morning
commute.
Any fog should mix out this morning, followed by mostly cloudy skies
parking over most of the region. The 2 upstream upper level lows
will consolidate into a single closed upper level low through the
day, then take on a negative tilt as it slowly shifts eastward
Friday. 0z guidance suggests this will lift 2 shortwaves through the
region, one today and another late Friday. Both may support showers,
maybe some thunderstorms, mainly across the west half.  Temperatures
today will be cooler then the past few days, with most Lake Superior
lakeshore communities and the Keweenaw Peninsula topping out near
60F while the south half climbs to near 70F. Tonight, most should
fall to near 50F, save the lakeshores which may only fall into the
low to mid 50s. More widespread 60s are expected Friday.
Saturday into Monday, the now negatively tilted mid-upper level
trough will send waves of precip through the region as the trough
slowly moves through the Great Lakes. Early next week, a deep wave
looks to dive southeast into the Central Plains, then slowly shift
eastward through the week. How far south the wave dives is the main
question, as its possible the preceding system over our area could
linger into Tuesday, which may push the feature into the into the
southern Plains, as suggested by the 12z and 0z EC deterministic.
Overall, the potential for another closed low in the Great Lakes
next week will keep the chance for precipitation in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR is expected to be the primary flight category at CMX for the
duration of the TAF period. Elsewhere, VFR will also be predominant
at IWD and SAW, too, with a few exceptions. First, scattered showers
could overspread IWD again later this morning, resulting in periods
of MVFR conditions in any heavier downpours. Meanwhile, the main
impact at SAW early this morning will be patchy fog bumping vis and
cigs up and down; thinking the main flight category will be IFR for
the next several hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Northeasterly winds over the lake will continue into tonight, then
become more easterly Friday. Over the west half of the lake,
northeast winds will strengthen to near 25 knots today and up to 30
knots on Friday west of the Keweenaw Peninsula. Over the east half
winds will generally be below 20 knots. Patchy fog will also be
possible over the far eastern part of the lake tonight as the
cooler, moist air moves into the area. Winds become southeasterly
Friday night and increase to 20-25kts over the east half while the
west stays below 20kts. Winds may lighten through the day some, with
near 20kt winds lingering over the east half into early Sunday. From
there, winds mostly below 20kts are expected.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...TAP/TDUD
MARINE...JTP

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion