Ferguson, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

165
FXUS63 KJKL 260838
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A daily risk for isolated showers will then continue through
  the weekend, mainly near the Virginia and Tennessee border.
- The remnants of a tropical system may impact the area for the
  early part of next week bringing the potential for heavy
  rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
At 8z, a mixture of high and low clouds with fog (locally dense)
was present across eastern Kentucky, along with a few small, light
rain showers over the far southeast. Temperatures range from the
low to mid-60s. The latest surface analysis shows a weak cold
frontal boundary now to our east, stretching from New England
southwestward over the southern Appalachians and beyond to the
Central Gulf Coast. The 850 hPa cold front appears to lag the
surface boundary and is located just ahead of a mid-level
vorticity lobe and a 500 hPa trough axis extending from the St.
Lawrence Valley southwestward into eastern Texas. It appears the
southern portion of the trough may already be closing off over
western Kentucky and Tennessee as the more poleward portion shears
off to the east.
Through the remainder of today, that weak upper low will cut off
completely from the main flow aloft and drift southward into the
Shoals of Alabama. Tonight and Saturday, that low will drift
eastward to near or over Atlanta, GA, before drifting back north
across the Southern Appalachians by the end of the day. In the
meantime, the aforementioned vorticity lobe will be very slow to
cross the area today, initiating weak convection (PoPs 5-35%,
lowest northwest to highest southeast). Precipitation chances will
become increasingly confined to the Virginia border area with
time. Precipitation chances will exit to the east this evening.
However, additional energy rotating around that new cutoff low
will lift into far eastern Kentucky tonight, potentially
initiating weak convection, primarily near and east of US-23.
Additional weak convection is possible on Saturday, primarily over
the eastern half of the forecast area, associated with the energy
ejecting out of the weak low. Meager instability, generally less
than 750 J/kg of MLCAPE, will limit overall convective vigor both
days; any thunder, should it occur, will be a novelty.
In sensible terms, fog (locally dense) and low stratus this
morning will lift, giving way to partly sunny skies. Any isolated
to widely scattered light showers will shift southeastward with
time, becoming confined mostly to areas near the Virginia-Kentucky
border. A rumble of thunder cannot be entirely ruled out with the
strongest activity this afternoon. It will be mild with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. For tonight, clouds will
remain persistent over the eastern half of the forecast area,
where isolated to widely scattered showers are expected to
redevelop late. Better clearing is expected further west and where
that persists, fog formation is especially favored in the
valleys. It will be cooler, with lows ranging from the mid-50s in
the western valleys to the low 60s over far eastern Kentucky.
Looking ahead to Saturday, cloud cover will be thicker and more
persistent across eastern portions of the area. These clouds will
coincide with the highest probability for rain (likely chances in
those counties adjacent to the Virginia-Kentucky border) but a
shower cannot be ruled out as far west as the Pottsville
Escarpment. A stray thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out.
Saturday will be similarly mild again with high temperatures in
the mid 70s to around 80.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2025
For Saturday, a positive upper trough axis will continue to move
slowly into the central and southern Appalachians with the frontal
boundary moving well southeast of the area.  However, an inverted
surface trough will remain across the far eastern sections of
east Kentucky.
Shear axis and associated Q-Vector forcing will help keep chances of
showers especially areas near the KY/VA and KY/TN state-lines.
Ensemble and latest deterministic models show CAPE values of 500
near the KY/VA and KY/TN stateline.  These areas will have the
greatest chance of scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in
the afternoon/early evening.
For Sunday, ensemble cluster analysis shows upper trough axis moving
east of the area with northerly flow aloft drying the area-mass over
the region. More sunshine and mostly dry conditions. Only the far
eastern counties have a slight chance of showers.
For early next week (especially Monday and Tuesday), upper trough
over the eastern United States becomes a cut-off low over the
southeast United States. The evolution of this upper trough/low will
play a major role in how the tropical systems affect the central and
southern Appalachians. Confidence is low of tropical track and
impacts over east Kentucky.
For Wednesday into Thursday of next week, a lot of uncertainties and
confidence low in regard to the phasing of the tropical system and
remains of weakening upper low over the southeast United States and
Appalachians. The ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models
differ a good deal. There is a potential of a good deal of sub-
tropical moisture remaining over the area keeping shower activity
and cloudy sky. Again, instability remains quite limited at best
thus thunder chances are low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Widely varying conditions were noted at TAF issuance. As upper
level clouds slowly pull away, expect low clouds and fog to become
the prevailing condition at most if not all locations, bringing a
period of MVFR/IFR or worse persisting through sunrise. Improvement
to VFR can be expected by the late morning/early afternoon hours
on Friday. Light winds from the north will be the rule during the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...GEERTSON

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion