Ferrelview, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

659
FXUS63 KEAX 132331
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...00z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into the first half of next
  week. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s into Tuesday.
- A few chances for widely scattered showers and storms (20-30%)
  Sunday afternoon/evening as well as Monday and Tuesday
  afternoon/evening. No severe weather expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
High amplitude shortwave ridging continues to remain in place over
the region today. This coupled with modest WAA is continuing to
allow temperatures to push well above normal with highs in the low
to mid 90s and lows tonight in the upper 60s to as warm as the mid
70s in the urban core. Tomorrow, a stationary front will extend from
a surface low over the Black Hills to near the MO/IL border. Widely
scattered afternoon/evening storms will be possible in the vicinity
of this front which may bring a few storms into the eastern CWA. In
addition, tomorrow, the upper level ridge will shift just east of
the area as a upper level trough digs into the west central Plains.
Lead shortwaves will move into eastern Kansas bringing the potential
for widely scattered afternoon/evening storms to the western CWA.
Monday and Tuesday the upper level ridge will continue to reside
just east of the area, with upper troughing over the western Plains.
This will leave the local area under southwest flow aloft between
the two features keeping temperatures well above normal with highs
remaining in the low to mid 90s. weak shortwaves in the southwest
flow may provide enough lift to produce some widely scattered
diurnally driven storms both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday night into
Wednesday the upper level trough will move from the western High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a trailing cold front
through the CWA Wednesday. This will bring the next good chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms (50-60%). The pattern looks to
remain active through the latter part of the work week as additional
shortwaves will move across the northern Plains continuing shower
and thunderstorm chances locally. In the wake of the cold front
Wednesday, temperatures will return to near normal with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s for the remainder of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions anticipated to prevail with this issuance. Light
S/SSW winds will become more due S overnight and through the day
Sunday, with winds around 10G18kts at times. Precipitation wise,
confidence not great enough to introduce PROB30s or otherwise.
Mid-upper shortwave expected to keep bulk of activity to the
west/into Kansas. Additionally, surface boundary expected to be
over eastern Missouri, too keeping activity away from the metro
sites and STJ. Will continue to monitor for any necessary
adjustments next cycle or two.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion