125 FXUS64 KSJT 190709 AFDSJTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 209 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, with above normal temperatures today.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend into the first half of next week.
- Temperatures trend hotter this weekend into Monday, then should be cooler by Tuesday into Wednesday.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 156 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Look for quiet weather across the area for the next 24 hours. However, it will be hot this afternoon and feel even more hot due to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s which is above normal for mid September. Overnight lows will be in the 60s to lower 70s.
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.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An embedded disturbance will move across the northern Texas late Saturday. This may be enough to support a low chance for an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm on Saturday evening through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will largely be limited to areas near the I-20 corridor and northward given the track of this disturbance.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate a low pressure system developing across the Plains. However, the GFS keeps the low centered further to the north, which will limit rain chances given the track of the low pressure center. Given the differences in model tracks and how much the low intensifies, it seems reasonable to keep rain chances (around 20%) limited for next week given the uncertainty. This may change if higher levels of consistency are seen in future model runs. Regardless, what seems most likely is we see a weak cold frontal boundary move into the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures will result, but highs will still remain in the upper 80s.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours. Also, expect light south winds.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 70 94 71 / 10 0 20 10 San Angelo 92 67 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 Junction 92 65 93 66 / 10 0 10 0 Brownwood 93 67 93 68 / 10 0 10 10 Sweetwater 92 69 93 70 / 10 10 20 10 Ozona 90 66 91 67 / 10 0 10 0 Brady 90 67 90 68 / 10 0 10 0
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.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...21
NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion