Flora, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

477
FXUS63 KIND 241705
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
105 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at times through
  tonight, especially over the southern half of central Indiana
- Thursday will transition from this week`s final showers...back to
  another warm and rain-free pattern
- Dry and warm conditions Friday into next week, with slight
  moderation from mid-70s to low 80s
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Rain coverage has diminished extensively since earlier this morning
as the surface wave has moved east of the region. The frontal
boundary has now drifted into southern Indiana with the bulk of
lingering showers in the vicinity of the front. Skies were mainly
cloudy elsewhere with extensive stratus across the region. 13Z
temperatures were primarily in the mid and upper 60s.
Overnight trends supporting a lowering of overall rain chances for
the remainder of the day continue as the boundary sits in a near
stationary mode across the far southern part of the state. Southern
portions of the forecast area have the best chance at seeing
scattered convection this afternoon but the focus for more
widespread and heavier rainfall will be near and south of the Ohio
River into tonight. Further north across the area...a gradual
intrusion of drier air aloft supports a lowering of rain chances
further with areas near and north of I-70 likely to be hard pressed
to see anything more than isolated activity the rest of the day.
With moisture remaining within the lower levels through late day.
Afternoon highs will remain in the 70s. Zone and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Early This Morning...
The initial wave of stronger forcing has moved east of central
Indiana at the moment, with mainly scattered light showers across
the area. Regional radar does show another area of rain across south
central Illinois, which will move east in the predawn hours.
Will have some likely PoPs south for the area of rain moving in from
Illinois, with lower PoPs elsewhere for the scattered showers.
Today...
The upper trough will remain west of the area today but could
still send some weak energy into the area at times. The surface
boundary will set up near the far southern forecast area early in
the period. A weak surface low will ride along the front,
bringing scattered to numerous showers to the southern forecast area
this morning, with scattered showers north.
After the wave passes, northerly winds will strengthen a bit,
bringing in some drier air. This plus only weak forcing possible
with any upper energy that moves through leads to lowering PoPs
during the afternoon, down to slight chance for some areas.
Any decent instability will be kept south of the boundary, so any
strong convection should stay south of the area. A few storms are
possible in the southern forecast area, but elsewhere the thunder
threat looks minimal.
Clouds and rain will keep highs in the 70s today.
Tonight...
The upper trough and an upper jet will move into the area, helping
another surface wave to ride along the boundary to the south.
Best forcing will be near and south of the surface wave, so will go
with highest PoPs in the south tonight (low likely category far
south).
Better moisture will be confined south of the area, and
the stronger 850mb winds are more parallel to the front. This will
keep the threat for heavy rain south of central Indiana. This setup
also keeps most of the thunder south as well.
Cooler air will come in behind the wave, bringing low temperatures
back to the upper 50s north and lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Thursday through Saturday...
The long term will begin with central Indiana transitioning back
into another extended duration of dry and warm conditions.  The
stubborn upper trough that has provided periods of much needed
rainfall this week...will finally depart to the east on Thursday.
However, this wave`s corresponding surface trough will already be
aligned over Ohio before the short term ends...blocking some of the
recent humidity and precipitable water to south/east of the local
region. Nevertheless the H500 axis will cross the CWA through
Thursday evening, promoting the week`s final scattered showers,
mainly east of I-69.  At times moderate northwesterly breezes will
bring decreasing clouds Thursday afternoon and dewpoints down into
the 50s for most locations.
Late this week will feature a zonal ridge slowly sliding east across
the central CONUS into the Midwest.  Weak surface high pressure will
provide a dry column and rain-free conditions while light northwest
winds and H850 temperatures around 12 degrees Celsius will promote a
subtle moderation through slightly above normal levels, with highs
nearing 80F by Saturday.  Humidity will also be slightly above
normal for late September, yet reasonable...with both dewpoints and
morning lows in the 50s.
Sunday through Tuesday...
The dry and warm pattern will continue into next week...as stronger
high pressure slowly sliding north over Ontario...helps to build the
next subtropical ridge over the Quad Cities/Great Lakes region. This
should be the center of another, albeit disorganized, omega block
over the central US.  Indiana will likely find itself situated
between the very warm, stationary ridge just to our north...and a
small disturbance retrograding west through the Tennessee Valley,
making up the southeast corner of the block.
This should translate to light easterly breezes under partly to
mostly clear skies and above normal readings often reaching the low
80s.  The disturbance expected to pass to our south bares watching,
yet the dry column should suppress any low rain chances to south of
the Ohio River.  Some guidance members suggest a tropical system
nearing Cape Hatteras by the end of the long term...may eventually
supply moderate humidity levels into the Midwest courtesy of the
persistent easterly flow, although lower confidence here for the
time being.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Impacts:
- Lingering MVFR stratus for the next few hours
- Periodic scattered showers into tonight, focused especially at
  KBMG and KHUF
- MVFR ceilings returning predawn Thursday through midday with some
  fog as well
Discussion:
Lower stratus remains in abundance across central Indiana early this
afternoon but as drier air advects south...should see ceilings rise
to VFR and break up a bit. A few light showers will focus across
southern portions of central Indiana into this evening as the
frontal boundary sits near or just north of the Ohio River. The
front will move little into early Thursday as another wave tracks
along it...leading to an increase in rainfall coverage for the Ohio
Valley but largely south of the terminals late tonight and Thursday
morning.
Deeper boundary layer moisture will advect southwest into the region
late tonight leading to another period of MVFR stratus and perhaps
brief visibility restrictions in fog from the predawn hours through
the morning. Gradual improvement in ceilings will occur Thursday
afternoon with deeper subsidence expanding into the region from the
northwest.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Ryan

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion