Four Points, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

088
FXUS64 KEWX 151902
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
202 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- repeat pattern of above normal temperatures and mostly stable
  condition continue through the 7 day period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A thin and relatively weak upper ridge axis over TX connect two
areas containing stronger ridge maxima, one over the Great Lakes
region and another over northern Mexico and West TX. The Coastal
Prairies holds some higher moisture today and is taking
advantage of the relative upper ridge weakness to form some
isolated to scattered showers and storms. A drier and more
stable environment builds over Central TX at the H7 level, and
this should curb rain chances almost entirely for Tuesday and
Wednesday. The drier mixed layer air means fewer clouds which
might set up Tuesday and Wednesday as the hottest days of the
next week but not by much.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Late in the work week, there continues to be a weak ridge axis
draped SW to NE over TX but with a slightly more W/NW flow aloft
pattern over North TX. This could pull more Gulf moisture inland
at lower levels and possible bring a more broader opportunity
for some diurnal air-mass type storms. Thursday`s guidance
suggest mainly just our far southern counties for late Thursday,
but expanded for all areas for each subsequent daytime and
afternoon period going into early next week. The impact on
temperatures will be minor, with maybe a degree or two cooler
than the short-term temps on highs, and hardly any noticeable
change on the min temps. High pressure should continue to
blanket South Central TX, but a few nocturnal storms might
threaten to get into the area in the late evenings.
Model dprog/dt trends forecast for next week as of today have
the ECM/GFS/CMC all going toward a more unstable forecast for
Central TX after Monday with each showing a deepening upper
trough either over TX or just west of the state. This being the
first of the runs to trend in that direction has us keeping with
the less shifty NBM solution until a few more these type of
runs can get stacked together. Should this be a new trend that
continues, would could see the mid week rain chances go fully
into the the chance category and toward likely as we get closer
those forecast periods.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Isolated SHRA moving E to W are beginning to develop over
Coastal Plains and may near I-35 terminals through about 01Z,
but coverage was too low to include mention in 18Z TAFs. VFR
conditions prevail through Tuesday with mostly dry moisture
profiles aloft aside from the isolated SHRA. Low clouds
redevelop overnight for mainly DRT and vicinity but models keep
sky cover FEW to SCT. S to SE winds prevail with typical
seabreeze increase up to around 12 kt after 00Z for SAT/SSF
before transitioning to weaker and more variable winds
overnight. SE winds return area wide after 16Z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  95  71  95 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  95  69  95 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  95  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  90  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  93  68  94 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  95  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  94  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...Tran

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion