Garner, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS62 KRAH 071630
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this morning. The front will
then settle off the coast of the southeastern United States into the
middle of the week as cool high pressure extends into the area from
the Mid-Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...
* Much cooler today with below normal highs, warmest in the early
  part of the day
* Cloud cover slow to erode with a moist post-frontal NE flow
* A few patchy showers around into midday, but storms should mainly
  reside east of the area
The surface cold front is still tucked west of the Appalachians of
NC and VA. The majority of the shower activity has waned
considerably in the last few hours as the effective front has pushed
well east of the area and stabilized the atmosphere. Plenty of low
and mid-layer clouds will continue to overspread the area as the
upper-trough is still to our west and the 850/700 mb frontal
position will be slow to move through until late tonight to early
Mon.
The cold front will edge south and through the area this morning
across the north, to early afternoon in the far SE, eventually
reaching the coast this evening. The front will then settle offshore
of the SE US later tonight as cool 1027 mb high pressure edges
southward from the OH valley.
It will be a much cooler day today compared to yesterday, by some 15-
20 degrees in the upper 60s to near 70 in the north to the low 80s
in the SE. Our warmest temperatures should be felt this morning just
along and south of the front. As the front moves through,
temperatures could drop into the 60s along/north of US-64 as
suggested by some high-res models. Otherwise, expect plenty of low
stratus with a moist post-frontal NE flow, at times gusting to 15-20
mph in the SE. The low clouds will be slow to erode, earliest to
lift in the NW Piedmont and slowest in the southeast. As for rain
chances, isolated to scattered rain/showers are possible this
morning and early afternoon mainly along/north of US-64 with the
850/700 mb front and trough overhead. This afternoon, instability
largely focuses east of the area. The latest HREF shows the best
chance of storms along and just inland of the immediate coast. We
have kept 30-percent PoPs in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain,
however.
Low and high clouds should finally clear out tonight with high
pressure building into the area. Overnight lows will dip into the
low/mid 50s in the north and near 60 in the south. Some spots in the
far north could dip into the upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Sunday...
* Dry, Breezy, and Cool
Underneath broad upper troughing, parent surface high centered over
the Northeast US and New England will be the dominate weather
feature as it extends southward along much of the Eastern Seaboard.
While some cloud cover may linger across the far eastern zones,
highs Monday afternoon will range from 75 to 80, about 4-8 degrees
below normal for early September. A modestly pinched gradient
between the high and a stalled offshore front will support NELY
gusts of 15 to 25 mph, with comfortable humidity levels as BL
dewpoints mix out into the upper 40s and 50s. Lows Monday night will
generally fall into the 50s, though some lower 60s are possible
across the SE counties where increasing/thickening cirrus spreads in
from the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...
* Near to below normal temperatures
* Best chance for rain will be across the Coastal Plain Tuesday
  night/Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather should prevail.
Aloft, a broad trough to the west Tue and Wed will gradually shift
ewd across the area Thu and Fri as a s/w swings through it. The s/w
will move offshore on Sat, while a s/w drops south out of Canada and
into the Northeast through Sun. There are still some differences in
the available guidance wrt the strength of the weekend s/w, as well
as the position of the ridge to the west of it. At the surface, cool
high pressure will ridge swd across the area Tue and Wed as the
parent high lifts nnewd across New England and Nova Scotia.
Meanwhile, an elongated coastal low may develop within the inverted
trough offshore potentially strengthening as it lifts nnewd along
and away from the NC coast Wed/Wed night. Another Canadian high will
move ewd across Ontario and Quebec Wed and Thu, ridging swd into the
region, then continuing to slide ssewd across the Northeast Fri and
Sat. The high should shift off/along the New England coast Sat
night/Sun, while continuing to ridge sswwd into the area.
Temperatures: Cool nly-nely flow for much of the period will result
in near to below normal temperatures across the area. There is the
chance for a bit of damming on Wed, which could result in high
temperatures on Wed a bit lower than forecast across portions of the
Piedmont. The warmest days will be Thu/Fri, when the nly-nely flow
and ridging are weakest.
Precipitation: Most of central NC will likely remain dry through the
period. The exception is in proximity to the coastal low/trough Tue
night/Wed. Have maintained some slight chances for precip across the
Coastal Plain, with higher chances along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 608 AM Sunday...
Areas of LIFR-IFR stratus and patchy low visibilities will start the
TAF period. The cold front will be moving through this morning, with
a gradual erosion of the LIFR-IFR ceilings. The moist NE flow behind
the front will favor a prolonged period of MVFR stratus across the
terminals today, with lifting to VFR earliest at GSO/INT around 16-
19z and latest at FAY/RWI around 00z. The latest forecast may be
somewhat on the pessimistic side, but is a blend of several high-res
models. More optimistic solutions suggest lifting to VFR between 15
and 21z over central NC, while slower solutions do not lift out MVFR
in the east until 03-05z Mon. High pressure building in tonight
should otherwise favor VFR to return at all terminals. Northeast
winds will prevail today, with some brief gusts to 18 kt, most
favored at the eastern sites. While there is the chance of a few
isolated showers or a storm, most activity should reside closer to
the coast. If any storm were to occur later today, it would be most
favored at FAY.
Outlook: Largely VFR conditions should prevail into much of the
upcoming week, however a stalled front offshore of the SE US could
favor a chance of sub-VFR conditions in showers Tue and Wed.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Kren

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion