Gaston, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

861
FXUS62 KCAE 301030
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
630 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered light showers remain possible today as
Imelda heads out to sea. Dry, cool conditions likely through
the rest of the week as NE flow strengthens. Rain chances
increase again near the end of the long term as moisture pours
back into the Southeast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Relatively cool with some isolated to scattered light showers
  through the morning.
Today and Tonight: Imelda continues to spin off the coast of
Florida and has started tracking eastward, moving away from area.
Locally, we could still see some isolated to scattered showers
through about midday or so. The overall rain chances gradually
diminish until then. A building high pressure starts moving into
the area from the north, bringing drier air into the area this
afternoon and tonight allowing cloud cover to start breaking up some
late today. As the high strengthens, the pressure gradient is
expected to tighten. As a result breezy northeast winds, gusting
to around 20 mph, can be expected this afternoon. With the
drier air and diminishing cloud cover, overnight lows are
forecast to be cooler than they have been in recent nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Drier air settles into the region Wednesday
The axis of an upper level trough will move out of the
Southeast during the short term as surface high pressure settles
into the Northeast. This will drive a dry air mass into the
forecast area through breezy, NE flow. Gusts during the
afternoon will be around 20 mph. Breezy winds may continue into
the evening especially on the warm area lakes but speeds should
remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. The dry air mass will
prevent rainfall but the driest air won`t reach the forecast
area until overnight with dewpoints dropping in to the low to
mid 50s. Highs will be near normal during the day. Weak cold
advection will allow for temps a couple of degrees below normal
but winds will stay up overnight preventing ideal radiational
cooling conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and cool conditions likely this week
- Rain chances increase near the end of the long term
As strong high pressure ridges into the region from the
Northeast mid-week we can expect cool, dry weather through at
least Friday. Mean PWAT values from global ensembles range from
40-80 percent of normal through Friday night favoring dry
weather and below normal lows overnight. Highs expected in the
70s with lows in the 50s.
The pattern should change over the weekend and into early next
week as surface high pressure moves offshore. The spread in
ensemble heights increase in this latter part of the long term,
however in general models favor increasing moisture over the
Southeast through onshore or southerly flow. This will lead to
increased rain chances and favor a warming temperature trend.
Temperatures over the weekend and into early next week will be
near or above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR cigs with pockets of MVFR cigs are being noted across the
area. The most prevalent pocket of the MVFR cigs has been over
the CAE and CUB terminals. Expect these cigs to persist through
much of the morning before gradually lifting to MVFR and
eventually VFR after 00z-03z, depending on the terminal. Some
light showers are also making their way through the Midlands at
the start of the period, mainly affecting CAE, CUB, and OGB
through around 16z. Breezy north to northeast winds persist
through the TAF period, with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of VFR conditions mid-
week is high with a drier pattern Wednesday through the end of
the week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion