Gold Beach, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

156
FXUS66 KMFR 271057
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
357 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke will impact the region over the next 36 hours. Eventually, a
big pattern change will bring rain and cooler temperatures to the
region early next week. Winds will increase across the area and
produce minor to moderate impacts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The main weather feature this weekend will be smoke from the Moon
Complex. The fire was burning fairly hot overnight and we`ll see
some of that smoke push inland around the afternoon and evening
hours when the easterly flow turns westerly. Grants Pass and
Josephine will observe the most dense smoke with hazy skies
generally west of the Cascades.
By Sunday, an approaching trough and stronger southerly to south
westerly winds will help push the smoke towards the north east.
Increased mixing should help limit the impacts farther downwind of
the fire. Eventually, some light rain should move farther inland
based on the ensembles. It looks like the best chances will be
Sunday night at the earliest with rain falling over most locations
by Monday morning. The NBM QPF forecast is showing around 1.5
inches of rain along the coast with totals down to 0.5 inches for
other locations west of the Cascades. Debris flows over burn scars
shouldn`t be a concern as hourly rainfall rates will be under
critical values.
Winds could also bring some impacts to the coastal areas and the
headlands. Winds at 925 mb around, which is about 2000 feet will
be 35 to 40 knots near the coast out of the south Monday morning.
Since this is one of the first wind events out of the south,
spotty power outages are possible.
The Shasta Valley should also be fairly windy on Sunday ahead of
the front. Models suggest sustained southerly winds around 25 mph
with gusts up to 40 mph around Weed CA. Pressure gradients between
Sacramento and souther Oregon are about 6 mb, which isn`t great
but approaching some stronger winds close to wind advisory
criteria.
A cold front should hit the region Tuesday night. This second
front appears to be a little more potent in strength and should
bring more wetting rain to the coast. The low associated with this
second front drops down to 970 mb according to the GFS, although
the low center is well to the west around 135W. The ECMWF ensemble
has about 10 members with a low center between 970 and 980 mb well
to our west, so definitely an unlikely scenario, although not
impossible.
The last thing worth mentioning is the dramatic temperature drop.
We`ve been observing highs in the upper 80`s or even 90`s for the
last few days. Temperatures will plummet into the 60`s for highs as
the lows and cold fronts swing though. We do begin to warm up
towards the end of the week as highs push back into the mid
70`s.
-Smith
&&
.AVIATION...27/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue through the
TAF period for all terminals. The exception is locations west to
southwest of the Moon complex where smoke could result in MVFR
visibility. It`s not our of the question there could be a brief
period of patchy shallow fog overnight, toward sunrise, at North
Bend, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF.
Coastal IFR is expected to develop later Saturday evening.
-Petrucelli/DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Saturday, September 27, 2025...A
thermal trough along the Oregon Coast will maintain gusty
northerly winds south of Cape Blanco, very steep seas south of
Gold Beach, and below advisory seas north of Cape Blanco.
A transition to a dominant northwest swell starts later this morning
as winds decrease, limiting steep seas to waters south of Port
Orford into Saturday afternoon.
Seas look to remain below advisory level from this afternoon into
Sunday afternoon. Then, an approaching front will bring gusty
southerly winds, with steep to very steep and hazardous seas
Sunday night into Monday. Active weather with a second front
Monday night into Tuesday could include gales. Winds and swell
from this second front will probably bring gale force winds.
-TAD/Smith
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ356-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion