Golden Isles, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

693
FXUS62 KMFL 301725
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Unidirectional northwesterly flow continues to usher in a period
of relatively anhydrous conditions across South Florida as a
rather pleasant, benign late wet-season day is in store for our
area. Precipitable water values remain between the 25% to 50%
percentile for the date, indicative of a drier air mass than
normal over the region. 17z ACARS data from KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI
show an atmospheric profile that has a plethora of dry air which
will keep any cloud development capped today. That being said,
Imelda`s far reaching fringe outer bands may bring shower activity
to our northern Atlantic waters and perhaps the immediate east
coast of Palm Beach County intermittently at times throughout the
day.
While conditions on land are pleasant, marine and beach conditions
continue to deteoriate across the Atlantic waters and beaches of
South Florida. A Small Craft Advisory and Rip Current Statement
remain in effect through mid-week. In addition, increasing north-
easterly swell from Humberto and Imelda will result in higher surf
values along the east coast, especially across Palm Beach County.
At some point and if new data continues to support it, a high
surf advisory may be needed for a portion of the east coast during
the mid week period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The mid-week period for today and tomorrow will be characterized by
a drier couple of days as significant dry air advection occurs via
NW flow across the region since South Florida sits on the outer
edges of Tropical Storm Imelda`s circulation. Imelda will continue
to push eastward today and by tonight will get far enough away to
lessen the pressure gradient force and allow for winds to settle
down. However, conditions today will remain breezy and gustier as
Imelda remains close enough to the Florida Peninsula. Other than
that, weather conditions will be mostly tranquil and dry as the
abundantly dry air in the mid levels and upper levels of the
atmosphere inhibits vertical growth. Some isolated to scattered
shallow showers are possible given enough low level moisture
presence, but showers are likely to be light and brief.
With less cloud cover and shower coverage, high temperatures will be
able to each the low 90s for most areas across South Florida today
and tomorrow. Overnight lows Tuesday night are expected in the low
to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Ensembles are showing a pretty complex pattern setting up for the
end of the week and this weekend. Currently, an Omega-Block ridge is
set up over the Midwestern United States. Troughs of low pressure
will set up on both sides of the blocking setup and an additional
shortwave trough develops over the deep south states and the Gulf
just south of the ridge axis. This shortwave trough will act to
help break down the strong high pressure while also advecting into
the South Florida region, but the high pressure ridge will still
maintain most of its strength and stretch across most of the
eastern United States. As a result, low pressure centers that form
via the shortwave trough will essentially become locked in place
and not able to move very far. Thus, this would create a setup
with continuous energy for showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Additionally, South Florida will be in the easterly flow region
around the northeast U.S. ridge at least through Saturday,
creating a steady stream of deeper moisture advection.
All things considered, this pattern is likely to lead to a wet end
to the week and the weekend as well. Potential QPF will depend on
several different factors and thus will change quite a bit in the
short term, so once details become better defined in the coming days
then total rainfall estimates will be outlined. The tail end of the
forecast period early next week is highly uncertain at this time,
but current projections indicate a continuation of wetter weather.
Daily high temperatures for Thursday and beyond are expected to be
in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Breezy NW to WNW surface winds will continue across South Florida
for the rest of today as Hurricane Imelda`s influence across the
area continues to wane. Bouts of MVFR cigs is possible at east
coast terminals today with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Winds
will become light but remain out of a north-westerly direction
overnight before veering onshore along both coasts tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A fresh to strong west-northwest breeze continues across the
Atlantic waters today as Tropical Storm Imelda remains in the
periphery. These winds will decrease to a gentle to moderate breeze
on Wednesday. For the Gulf waters, a moderate breeze is expected
through Wednesday.
Hazardous winds and seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic
waters over the next few days as ongoing swell and breezy winds
continue behind Imelda. Seas will range from 7-10 feet through
Wednesday and could still remain elevated later in the week.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for the Atlantic waters
currently through late Wednesday night.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
A high risk for rip currents continues across all Atlantic beaches
through the mid-week period as stronger winds and swell occur due to
Tropical Storm Imelda passing nearby in the western Atlantic waters.
An elevated risk could persist into the end of the week and
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  90  77  87 /  20  50  40  70
West Kendall     75  90  75  88 /  20  50  40  70
Opa-Locka        76  91  77  89 /  20  50  40  70
Homestead        75  90  75  87 /  20  50  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  75  89  76  87 /  30  50  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  75  89  77  87 /  20  50  40  70
Pembroke Pines   76  92  77  89 /  20  50  40  70
West Palm Beach  74  88  76  86 /  30  50  40  60
Boca Raton       74  90  75  87 /  30  50  40  70
Naples           76  90  75  89 /  20  40  40  70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ168-
     172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion